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US Dollar Weakness Precedes Equity Weakness
Created on: 12/15/2020 2:41:34 PM

us-dollar-weakness-precedes-equity-weaknessWait what! Well, why would foreign capital run into a falling currency!

We have always heard that a falling US dollar helps growth.

But if Foreigners want to buy US assets they also do not want to lose on the currency. 

If a US equity market is high and the US dollar depreciates then so does the foreign investment in US assets.

Money likes appreciation in equity and currency value, if one falters, it will leave. 

If the US Dollar falls into the 80s (on the DXY) the SELL button for stocks will be near.


Watching ....

NOTE: The 2004-2006 time period (??) was the US Housing boom which plugged a few holes while foreign capital did not run to the USA.


USD



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Investing Quote...

.."There were times when my plans went wrong and my stocks did not run true to form, but did the opposite of what they should have done if they had kept up their regard for precedent. But they did not hit me very hard – they couldn’t, with my shoestring margins."...

Jesse Livermore


..“If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.”..

Bernard Baruch


.."Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected"..

George Soros


My experience has been that in successful businesses and fund management companies, which performed well over the long-term, some courageous decisions were taken. Courageous fund managers reduce their positions when markets become frothy and accumulate equities when economic and social conditions are dire. They avoid the most popular sectors, which are therefore over-valued, and invest in neglected sectors because being neglected by investors they are by definition inexpensive. The point is that it is very hard and that it takes a lot of courage for a fund manager to avoid the most popular sectors and stocks and to invest in unloved assets. Finally, every investor understands the principle ‘buy low and sell high’, but when prices are low nobody wants to buy.

Marc Faber




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