SP500 Cycle Review
Created on: 11/1/2020 2:02:57 PM
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 Many of our cycle methods suggest 2021 will see another major top in stocks. But how far down? Forecasting how large the correction may be is any ones guess, any thing from 10% to 66% is on the table.
Assuming the US elections do not shock, the built up energy (CAUSE) will release higher asset prices (EFFECT) for 4 to 8 months. The massive generation of COVID US M2 money supply is sitting in bank accounts ready to be leveraged (buy buy buy) by the major Wall Street banks. Yes you can confirm that the global liquidity is high and ready to hunt for a home.
Chart 1: The Kitchin cycle continues to work (notice the margin of error band).
Chart 2: Bartels confirms the above cycle. Notice major market tops and timely intervals.
NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote...
.."Anyone who buys or sells a stock, a bond or a commodity for profit is speculating if he employs intelligent foresight. If he does not, he is gambling."..
Richard D Wyckoff
.."To cause high prices, all the Fed will do will be to lower the re discount rate..., producing an expansion of credit and a rising stock market; then when, business men are adjusted to these conditions, it can check, prosperity in mid career by arbitrarily raising the rate of interest. It can cause the pendulum of a rising and falling market to swing gently back and forth by slight changes in the discount rate, or cause violent fluctuations by a greater rate variation and in either case it will possess inside information as to financial conditions and advance knowledge of the coming change, either up or down. This is the most dangerous advantage ever placed in the hands of a special privilege class by any Government that ever existed. The are private, conducted for the purpose of obtaining the greatest possible profits from the use of other people's money. They know in advance when to create panics to their advantage, and when to stop panic."...
Charles August Lindbergh Snr
.."Socialism in general has a record of failure so blatant that only an intellectual could ignore or evade it"..
Thomas Sowell
.."It Ain’t What You Don’t Know That Gets You Into Trouble. It’s What You Know for Sure That Just Ain’t So"..
Mark Twain
..“One must search through a maze of complex and contradictory details to get to the significant facts … Then he must be able to operate coldly, clearly, and skilfully on the basis of those facts.” The challenge for the successful speculator is “how to disentangle the cold hard facts from the rather warm feelings of the people dealing with the facts.” Moreover, “if you get all the facts, your judgment can be right; if you don’t get all the facts, it can’t be right”...
Bernard Baruch
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