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Created on: 2/7/2026 4:35:36 PM Last Update: 2/7/2026 5:30:14 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 245 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
Bitcoin slump!
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 Question: Why was the crypto cycle of 2025/26 such a dud!
Answer: Short answer. Japanese yen weakness.
Long answer.
(1) The effect of the JPY weakness due to Japanese debt spiral dynamics.
(2) Chinese housing deflation.
(3) US interest rates are to high on tariff fears.
Asian speculators have not fueled mind-blowing crypto prices, and have enjoyed the speculation in silver and gold as a replacement.
Fixes:
(1) The BOJ [and the FED] buys Japanese bonds to avoid a global debt spiral collapse, the result will be US dollar (DXY) < 85, and a stronger Japanese currency (JPY).
(2) The PBOC prints more money, and Xi encourages investment in gold to offset consumer housing value losses.
(3) The FED cuts rates as inflation did not appear (yet) and US dollar (DXY) < 90.
POINT: The quick fix is the DXY down hard!
Before the charts below, here is a rule to understand.
Rule: Gold moves higher when there is stress in the global debt finance. Bitcoin moves higher when the stress in global debt finance is released.
Chart 1 - Bitcoin moves up in price fast when the Chinese economy runs hot (no financial stress). This is expressed by the Chinese 10 yr interest rate (CNY10) ratio to the US Dollar (DXY). The Chinese 10 yr rate rises when the economy overheats.
The red line (A) below has been sideways during 2025, expressing no excitement in the Chinese economy (financial stress present). No excitement to send Bitcoin to the moon.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Chart 2 - Japanese currency (JPY) weakness removes export power (and economic power) from the Chinese economy. During the Bitcoin rallies in 2018 and 2021, the Chinese currency (CNY) started much weaker than the Japanese currency (JPY), and when strength arrived to the Chinese currency, the Bitcoin rally ended.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Chart 3 - Japanese debt spiral risk has sent the Japanese currency down. Rising 10 yr interest rates while inflation is mute have shown a lack of confidence in the Japanese bond market and investors are expecting massive central bank intervention to avoid a global debt spiral.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
More on the Japanese debt risk.
NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote...
..."They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market."..
Jesse Livermore
..“If it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong.”..
Joe Granville
..“It’s not what you own that will send you bust but what you owe.”..
Anon
..“Successful speculation requires staying on top of changes in industries and companies that either create new industries or improve on existing industries. The majority of your profits will come from these two … The shrewdest traders throughout history all adapted the skill of reactionary change, as the market constantly presents new and different opportunities.”..
Bernard Baruch
.."The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other peoples' money"..
Margaret Thatcher
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