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Created on: 2/25/2024 2:10:23 PM Last Update: 2/25/2024 2:43:44 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 208 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
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Long term bond games will send investors into gold
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 The mighty US of A has $10,000,000,000 (trillion) of US dollar debt to sell this year.
It is only February 2024, and the 20 yr and 30 yr bonds are not being swamped with demand.
Chart 1 - Ugly auction, this trend will continue until Yellen bends the knee.
Chart 2 - 10 yr interest rates near multi decade highs.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
It seems that with interest rates near 4.25% (10 yr) and the US dollar (DXY) near $105, this does not encourage foreign investors to buy long term US Treasuries. Therefore, either or both the interest rate needs to rise and/or the US dollar needs to fall to encourage investors to by 20 yr and 30 yr US Treasury auctions.
Chart 3 - Rev Repo has fallen from $2.2 trillion to near zero.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
The US Department of Treasury has been using the cash in the temporary reverse repo to transfer US debt to investors as TBills. This will be over by April 2024. Next, they can use the Treasury checking account (TGA) for another $800M. Then what? A much lower US dollar is an option.
Of course a trending lower US dollar will fuel gold move to higher, this of course will improve the profits of gold and silver stocks.
Chart 4 - XAU building higher lows.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Chart 5 - GDXJ base building.
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Also, US corporations are soon to hit a re financing wall with much higher interest rates (up 100%). Higher interest expenses will result in fewer people employed. Rising unemployment in an election year will not be attractive, hence another good reason to lower interest rates and the US dollar.
Chart 6 - Corporate interest expense to explode soon.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
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Investing Quote...
.."Anyone who buys or sells a stock, a bond or a commodity for profit is speculating if he employs intelligent foresight. If he does not, he is gambling."..
Richard D Wyckoff
.."When I bet big .. I have a mind to own a position for years .. Yet you must have a ruthless objectiveness and open mindedness as to when the facts change to exit the position, if so within hours or days .. I have not used a stop loss in 40 years"..
Stanley Druckenmiller
.."it is better to have few stocks and to watch them carefully”...
Bernard Burach
.."No amount of evidence will ever persuade an idiot"..
Mark Twain
..“Because of the extreme challenge, one must commit full attention to it.” Market speculation is “no different than trying to be a successful doctor or lawyer … you simply must devote yourself full-time to the study of your craft”...
Bernard Baruch
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