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Created on: 7/22/2023 11:17:24 PM Last Update: 7/22/2023 11:44:46 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 425 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
US tax receipts hurting the dollar
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 US tax receipts must continue to grow to fuel the confidence of the US debt markets.
Previous Post: Gold and Oil fundamentals are married together
In chart 1, the red dots marked A to F show the periods where US Federal Tax receipts showed negative growth year over year (YOY). US tax receipts have slowed due to the inflation fighting measures applied by world governments. US inflation has fallen from 9% to 3%. Job done! Now some tight monetary controls can be withdrawn, a lower dollar for one. Each red dot is also timed with a slump (in different degrees) in the US Dollar index (DXY).
POINT: A fall in the US dollar is one of the methods used to inject more US dollar liquidity, or easier money, this tends to be inflationary. A rise in the US dollar removes dollar liquidity, or tighter money, this tends to be deflationary.
When the US dollar falls, it allows for higher prices for gold and oil. Depending on oil fundamentals at the time, both oil and gold can rise dramatically higher. Tax receipt slumps A, C, D, E, and F enjoyed handsome games on recovery.
Currently YOY% change of US Tax Receipts are negative, this should be followed by a lower US dollar and higher gold and oil prices over the next 6 to 12 months. By how much, we shall see.
Chart 1 - US dollar, US tax receipts, gold and oil.
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Chart 2 - US Dollar Cycle: Plenty of room to move down for the DXY.
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Chart 3 - US Dow Jones Cycle: As a falling US dollar is easy money liquidity injection, will it be enough for stocks to move higher in line with 900 day period cycle. Why not!
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Investing Quote...
.."It is not as important to buy as cheap as possible as it is to buy at the right time."..
Jesse Livermore
..“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.”..
Bernard Baruch
..“The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible”..
Bernard Baruch
.."Socialism in general has a record of failure so blatant that only an intellectual could ignore or evade it"..
Thomas Sowell
.."Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets"...
Stan Druckenmiller
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