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Created on: 7/22/2023 11:17:24 PM Last Update: 7/22/2023 11:44:46 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 664 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
US tax receipts hurting the dollar
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 US tax receipts must continue to grow to fuel the confidence of the US debt markets.
Previous Post: Gold and Oil fundamentals are married together
In chart 1, the red dots marked A to F show the periods where US Federal Tax receipts showed negative growth year over year (YOY). US tax receipts have slowed due to the inflation fighting measures applied by world governments. US inflation has fallen from 9% to 3%. Job done! Now some tight monetary controls can be withdrawn, a lower dollar for one. Each red dot is also timed with a slump (in different degrees) in the US Dollar index (DXY).
POINT: A fall in the US dollar is one of the methods used to inject more US dollar liquidity, or easier money, this tends to be inflationary. A rise in the US dollar removes dollar liquidity, or tighter money, this tends to be deflationary.
When the US dollar falls, it allows for higher prices for gold and oil. Depending on oil fundamentals at the time, both oil and gold can rise dramatically higher. Tax receipt slumps A, C, D, E, and F enjoyed handsome games on recovery.
Currently YOY% change of US Tax Receipts are negative, this should be followed by a lower US dollar and higher gold and oil prices over the next 6 to 12 months. By how much, we shall see.
Chart 1 - US dollar, US tax receipts, gold and oil.
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Chart 2 - US Dollar Cycle: Plenty of room to move down for the DXY.
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Chart 3 - US Dow Jones Cycle: As a falling US dollar is easy money liquidity injection, will it be enough for stocks to move higher in line with 900 day period cycle. Why not!
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Investing Quote...
..."By knowing the exact vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what point each will receive support and what point the greatest resistance is to be met"...
William D Gann
.."If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks"..
John (Jack) Bogle
.."I was educated once - it took me years to get over it"..
Mark Twain
..“I buy on the assumption they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years” and “Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.”..
Warren Buffet
.."So you think money is the root of all evil? Have you ever asked what is the root of money? Money is a tool of exchange, which can't exist unless there are goods produced and men are able to produce them. Money is the material shape of the principle that men who wish to deal with one another must deal by trade and give value for value(...) Money is made possible only by the men who produce. Is this what you consider evil?"..
Ayn Rand
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