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Created on: 2/28/2023 9:12:21 PM Last Update: 3/1/2023 5:57:28 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 570 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
Math says Gold is going higher
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 If you lend money to some one, your primary concern is will the borrower maintain enough income to ensure interest and principle payments to you. This is banker math 101.
Lending money to a country requires the same logic.
The red line below (Chart 1) has a simple meaning.
1) Rising : Percentage gains of federal tax receipts are greater than percentage gains of federal debt.
2) Falling : Percentage gains of federal tax receipts are less than percentage gains of federal debt.
3) Pivots : Changes in direction. Resulting in trend changes to gold and the Federal Reserve funds rate.
POINT: If the red line is rising the lenders of money to the USA are confident of interest payments, if the red line is falling confidence in receiving interest payments declines, or a sovereign debt crisis!
Lets review major pivot periods.
2001: Tax receipts collapsed going into US recession of 2001/02*
2007: Tax receipts collapsed going into US recession of 2008/09*
2015: Tax receipts collapsed going into the slump of 2016 (China slow down, US Elections)*
2023: Pending: Tax receipts are forecast to collapse in 2023 H2 (see 2s10s yield curve recession forecast)
* In these years US debt to GDP moved higher after initial slow down.
Chart 1
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
The red line in the chart 1 highlights the forecasting of federal tax receipts and debt are very important to the trends of gold and federal funds rate. @LukeGromen (twitter) monitors tax receipts (chart 2), and the trend leader for US tax receipts is California, USA. Forecast is that tax receipts are falling hard.
POINT: This means the red line is about to fall hard starting ion 2023 Q1, just like the other years quoted above. Good for gold, and it will also force the FED to cut the FED Funds rate.
Chart 2
Falling tax receipts with out massive spending cuts results in more debt (chart 3). Just when the rest of the world does not want to buy US debt. This may force the FED to be the buyer of last resort once more.
Chart 3
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
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of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
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is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote...
.."Keep the number of stocks you own to a controllable number. It is hard to herd cats, and it is hard to track many securities. Take your losses quickly and do not brood about them. Try to learn from them but mistakes are as inevitable as death."..
Jesse Livermore
.."Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic... There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market."...
Paul Tudor Jones
.....“I measure what's going on, and I adapt to it. I try to get my ego out of the way. The market is smarter than I am so I bend.”..
Martin Zweig
.."If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks"..
John (Jack) Bogle
.."The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market."..
George Soros
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