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Created on: 2/28/2023 9:12:21 PM   Last Update: 3/1/2023 5:57:28 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 444 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.

1 POST Math says Gold is going higher
math-says-gold-is-going-higherIf you lend money to some one, your primary concern is will the borrower maintain enough income to ensure interest and principle payments to you. This is banker math 101.

Lending money to a country requires the same logic.

The red line below (Chart 1) has a simple meaning.
1) Rising : Percentage gains of federal tax receipts are greater than percentage gains of federal debt.
2) Falling : Percentage gains of federal tax receipts are less than percentage gains of federal debt.
3) Pivots : Changes in direction. Resulting in trend changes to gold and the Federal Reserve funds rate.

POINT: If the red line is rising the lenders of money to the USA are confident of interest payments, if the red line is falling confidence in receiving interest payments declines, or a sovereign debt crisis!

Lets review major pivot periods.

2001: Tax receipts collapsed going into US recession of 2001/02*
2007: Tax receipts collapsed going into US recession of 2008/09*
2015: Tax receipts collapsed going into the slump of 2016 (China slow down, US Elections)*
2023: Pending: Tax receipts are forecast to collapse in 2023 H2 (see 2s10s yield curve recession forecast)

* In these years US debt to GDP moved higher after initial slow down.


Chart 1


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Gold 1




The red line in the chart 1 highlights the forecasting of federal tax receipts and debt are very important to the trends of gold and federal funds rate. @LukeGromen (twitter) monitors tax receipts (chart 2), and the trend leader for US tax receipts is California, USA. Forecast is that tax receipts are falling hard.

POINT: This means the red line is about to fall hard starting ion 2023 Q1, just like the other years quoted above. Good for gold, and it will also force the FED to cut the FED Funds rate.



Chart 2

Gold 2




Falling tax receipts with out massive spending cuts results in more debt (chart 3). Just when the rest of the world does not want to buy US debt. This may force the FED to be the buyer of last resort once more.

Chart 3


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Gold 3




Divider




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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.


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Investing Quote...

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Richard D. Wyckoff


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Paul Tudor Jones


.."So you think money is the root of all evil? Have you ever asked what is the root of money? Money is a tool of exchange, which can't exist unless there are goods produced and men are able to produce them. Money is the material shape of the principle that men who wish to deal with one another must deal by trade and give value for value(...) Money is made possible only by the men who produce. Is this what you consider evil?"..


Ayn Rand

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Bernard Baruch


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