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Created on: 1/12/2023 1:17:33 PM Last Update: 1/12/2023 1:33:58 PM Posted by: RTT
1 POST
Hot pick for 2023 - 2
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This is pick number 2. It is number 2 as the volatility is extreme and a new low is not off the table.
Ethereum is likely to recover off its lows, however unlikely to make new highs in 2023.
Some points:
- Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are managing supply shocks (BTC - MT Cox coin release, ETH - Stacking release post merge) to ensure price recovers.
- Big down moves end on big bad news, the FTX crash should be the bad news to end the crypto sell off (well pending).
- New liquidity is arriving to world markets via the Chinese re opening and a lower US dollar.
- The FED's balance sheet reduction is being offset by the Dept of Treasury (Yellen) use of the TGA account.
- The reduction of world wealth via Bonds, Crypto, World Stock markets is near $30 trillion USD, the damage has been done to lower inflation concerns. The inflation fix is working.
- The greatest pain trade is for sold off risk on markets to recover.
- The US has a balance of payments issue in 2023, who will buy excess USTs. The FED of course!
Chart ETH - Notice how $ETH moves between green channel support and resistance lines.
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Investing Quote...
.." If you cannot make money out of the leading active issues, you are not going to make money out of the stock market as a whole"..
Jesse Livermore Trading Rule
.."man exists for the achievement of his desires"..
Ayn Rand
.."We are fast approaching the stage of the ultimate inversion: the stage where the government is free to do anything it pleases, while the citizens may act only by permission"..
Ayn Rand
.."To cause high prices, all the Fed will do will be to lower the re discount rate..., producing an expansion of credit and a rising stock market; then when, business men are adjusted to these conditions, it can check, prosperity in mid career by arbitrarily raising the rate of interest. It can cause the pendulum of a rising and falling market to swing gently back and forth by slight changes in the discount rate, or cause violent fluctuations by a greater rate variation and in either case it will possess inside information as to financial conditions and advance knowledge of the coming change, either up or down. This is the most dangerous advantage ever placed in the hands of a special privilege class by any Government that ever existed. The are private, conducted for the purpose of obtaining the greatest possible profits from the use of other people's money. They know in advance when to create panics to their advantage, and when to stop panic."...
Charles August Lindbergh Snr
.."Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets"...
Stan Druckenmiller
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