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Created on: 10/20/2022 7:19:30 PM   Last Update: 10/20/2022 7:25:48 PM Posted by: RTT
1 POST SP500 pivot time cycle due in Dec 2022
sp500-pivot-time-cycle-due-in-dec-2022China is about to come out of lock down, like all other lock down exits a mini boom follows, so is it time to place your bets.

Maybe they can call Xi lock down exit the 'Xi pivot' (compared to a Fed pivot). 

Come Dec 2022 the US mid terms and the Chinese Congress meeting will be over, and the outcome of the Ukraine winter war may be more clear. 

There is a lot of news coming after Dec 2022:

- Will the GOP be supporting the Ukraine war as much as the Dem's?
- How successful will Russia be in Ukraine during the 'Winter War'?
- Will a Chinese lock down end be a mini boom for the world and send oil and risk on higher?
- What will a higher oil price do to inflation and the worlds extended bond market?
- How will Europe's energy demands be met during the 2023 winter (as supplies depleted after 2022 winter)?
- Will the FED be forced to defend its bond markets buy buying debt to contain interest rates (Yield Curve control, like the BOJ and BOE)?

POINT: The investor class is very short risk on assets, uncertainty after Nov 2022 may force the short players to cover and buy back their positions, hence a SP500 rally in Dec 2022 is very possible.


A Christmas rally started by short covering, which latter gets a 'Xi pivot' boost could run for 6 to 9 months into 2023 (another boost could come from a FED pivot or pause, just saying). Keep your powder dry, fun times are coming.



Chart 1

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SP500 cycle




Chart 2

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Dow Cyclesp500-pivot-time-cycle-due-in-dec-2022



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