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Created on: 6/26/2022 5:05:13 PM   Last Update: 6/26/2022 7:38:58 PM Posted by: RTT
1 POST Gold Stocks Review
gold-stocks-reviewGold miners do well when gold is higher, and borrowing and gasoline costs are lower.

Lets start with a question: Why do governments own gold?

1) The need it to support their economy during an energy crisis. If their currency is collapsing oil producers will not take fiat for settlement, but they will accept gold.
2) While the US prints money the purchasing power of the US dollar is declining, hence gold is a hedge.

A particular market action which forces traders to move gold higher is when oil moves higher while the US dollar falls. This means the US dollar is losing purchasing power against oil, therefore gold will go higher as the demand for (1) above explodes. Some history, gold moved higher sharply in these years 2007, 2011, 2016, 2020. All these rallies coincided with a move higher in oil and a move lower in the US dollar. Recently oil moved from $70 to $110 but gold did not move higher, this is because the US dollar was strong during the same period.

Currently some 2022 H2 fundamentals are brewing which may see higher oil prices with a lower US dollar:

Oil: The coming 2022/23 European winter will send world oil and gas prices much higher. Europe has refused Russian supplies and the clash between consumers and politicians is coming, and before a deal is done oil and gas will be much higher.

US dollar: The FED pauses or cuts rate, halts balance sheet reduction. Due to high recession risk they are forced to pivot. More so they pivot while the ECB is hiking rates. Biden has worked out the recession doom talk is worse than inflation going in to the US mid terms.  



A move higher in gold will see the gold miners do well, more so if the stock market moves higher as well. This may happen when and if the FED switches from extreme hawk to maybe a mild hawk or even a dove with monetary policy. 

Yes the FED can flip flop!





Some charts


Chart 1 - Gold Miners Junior: Good accumulation is present. Richard Wyckoff laws applied.

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GDXJ




Chart 2 - Gold working the channel


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Gold




Chart 3 - Silver working the channel


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Silver





Chart 4 - XAU working the channel

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XAU




Divider




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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.


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