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Created on: 6/26/2022 5:05:13 PM Last Update: 6/26/2022 7:38:58 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 277 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
Gold Stocks Review
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 Gold miners do well when gold is higher, and borrowing and gasoline costs are lower.
Lets start with a question: Why do governments own gold?
1) The need it to support their economy during an energy crisis. If their currency is collapsing oil producers will not take fiat for settlement, but they will accept gold.
2) While the US prints money the purchasing power of the US dollar is declining, hence gold is a hedge.
A particular market action which forces traders to move gold higher is when oil moves higher while the US dollar falls. This means the US dollar is losing purchasing power against oil, therefore gold will go higher as the demand for (1) above explodes. Some history, gold moved higher sharply in these years 2007, 2011, 2016, 2020. All these rallies coincided with a move higher in oil and a move lower in the US dollar. Recently oil moved from $70 to $110 but gold did not move higher, this is because the US dollar was strong during the same period.
Currently some 2022 H2 fundamentals are brewing which may see higher oil prices with a lower US dollar:
Oil: The coming 2022/23 European winter will send world oil and gas prices much higher. Europe has refused Russian supplies and the clash between consumers and politicians is coming, and before a deal is done oil and gas will be much higher.
US dollar: The FED pauses or cuts rate, halts balance sheet reduction. Due to high recession risk they are forced to pivot. More so they pivot while the ECB is hiking rates. Biden has worked out the recession doom talk is worse than inflation going in to the US mid terms.
A move higher in gold will see the gold miners do well, more so if the stock market moves higher as well. This may happen when and if the FED switches from extreme hawk to maybe a mild hawk or even a dove with monetary policy.
Yes the FED can flip flop!
Some charts
Chart 1 - Gold Miners Junior: Good accumulation is present. Richard Wyckoff laws applied.
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Chart 2 - Gold working the channel
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Chart 3 - Silver working the channel
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Chart 4 - XAU working the channel
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NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote...
..."There is what I call the behaviour of a stock, actions that enable you to judge whether or not it is going to proceed in accordance with the precedents that your observation has noted. If a stock doesn’t act right don’t touch it, because, being unable to tell precisely what is wrong, you cannot tell which way it is going."...
Jesse Livermore
My experience has been that in successful businesses and fund management companies, which performed well over the long-term, some courageous decisions were taken. Courageous fund managers reduce their positions when markets become frothy and accumulate equities when economic and social conditions are dire. They avoid the most popular sectors, which are therefore over-valued, and invest in neglected sectors because being neglected by investors they are by definition inexpensive. The point is that it is very hard and that it takes a lot of courage for a fund manager to avoid the most popular sectors and stocks and to invest in unloved assets. Finally, every investor understands the principle ‘buy low and sell high’, but when prices are low nobody wants to buy.
Marc Faber
.."When I bet big .. I have a mind to own a position for years .. Yet you must have a ruthless objectiveness and open mindedness as to when the facts change to exit the position, if so within hours or days .. I have not used a stop loss in 40 years"..
Stanley Druckenmiller
.."When a dictatorship is a fact. Revolution becomes a right"..
Victor Hugo
Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic stricken, you should not be in the stock market.
Warren Buffett
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We at readtheticker.com hold the view that a mix of stock chart technical analysis, Richard Wyckoff, William Gann and Jim Hurst methods plus market fundamentals allows the investor to formulate a very sound market opinion. These attributes are mutually inclusive and must be weighted equally before investing or trading in any Stock, ETF, Currency, Bond, Commodity, CFD or Mutual Fund
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