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Created on: 9/25/2021 3:20:38 PM Last Update: 9/25/2021 4:18:55 PM Posted by: RTT WARNING: This entry is 1629 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
Silver during periods of Industrial Inflation
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When industrial inflation is hotter than consumer inflation silver does well.
Previous Post: Silver, after the FED said taper talk is a long way off
In the chart below we see the relationship between silver and the yield curve and the Producer Price Inflation.
The yield curve is the US 30 yr interest rate less the Fed Funds interest rate (blue line). When the blue line is high a steep yield curve is present, and when it is low a flat yield curve is present. A steep yield curve is when longer term rates are higher than short term rates vica versa for a flat yield curve.
A steep yield curve is when the long term rates are higher than the short term rates, suggesting investors are not selling risk on assets and buying safe bonds, this is a healthy risk on environment. A flat yield curve is a period of economic concern as investors are selling risk on assets and buying safe bonds, this is when the blue line is falling and if below zero it may lead to a recession. Silver price tends to suffers during recessions.
Economic recovery is when the blue line moves from up from zero, this recovery leads to increased industrial and investor demand for silver.
POINT: Yield curve recovery leads silver price recover.
The next indicator (red line) is the industrial producer price inflation ratio to the consumer price inflation, or PPI divided by CPI, or business versus the consumer. If during a period of yield curve recovery we also have hot producer price inflation the silver price recovery is likely to be more aggressive.
Higher inflation arrives during periods of abundant money supply while suffering market constraints (or shortages). There is abundant money around (after FED printing) and COVID19 has disrupted supply chains resulting in shortages. High demand for items in short supply creates inflation.
Currently 2021 PPI is red hot versus CPI and if this persist like the periods of 1973 to 1982 and 2006 to 2014 (ex 2008 shock) silver will likely see higher prices.
POINT: Hot industrial price inflation will support higher silver prices.
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The chart below shows Gann Angles drawn from zero (see more via our previous post), these are good for price pull back analysis. They currently show an ideal place for the bulls to buy back in at a great price.
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NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
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is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote...
..“It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind.”..
Jesse Livermore
Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic stricken, you should not be in the stock market.
Warren Buffett
.."To cause high prices, all the Fed will do will be to lower the re discount rate..., producing an expansion of credit and a rising stock market; then when, business men are adjusted to these conditions, it can check, prosperity in mid career by arbitrarily raising the rate of interest. It can cause the pendulum of a rising and falling market to swing gently back and forth by slight changes in the discount rate, or cause violent fluctuations by a greater rate variation and in either case it will possess inside information as to financial conditions and advance knowledge of the coming change, either up or down. This is the most dangerous advantage ever placed in the hands of a special privilege class by any Government that ever existed. The are private, conducted for the purpose of obtaining the greatest possible profits from the use of other people's money. They know in advance when to create panics to their advantage, and when to stop panic."...
Charles August Lindbergh Snr
.."If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks"..
John (Jack) Bogle
..“One must search through a maze of complex and contradictory details to get to the significant facts … Then he must be able to operate coldly, clearly, and skilfully on the basis of those facts.” The challenge for the successful speculator is “how to disentangle the cold hard facts from the rather warm feelings of the people dealing with the facts.” Moreover, “if you get all the facts, your judgment can be right; if you don’t get all the facts, it can’t be right”...
Bernard Baruch
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