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Created on: 9/25/2021 3:20:38 PM   Last Update: 9/25/2021 4:18:55 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 277 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.

1 POST Silver during periods of Industrial Inflation
silver-during-periods-of-industrial-inflationWhen industrial inflation is hotter than consumer inflation silver does well.

Previous Post: Silver, after the FED said taper talk is a long way off

In the chart below we see the relationship between silver and the yield curve and the Producer Price Inflation. 

The yield curve is the US 30 yr interest rate less the Fed Funds interest rate (blue line). When the blue line is high a steep yield curve is present, and when it is low a flat yield curve is present. A steep yield curve is when longer term rates are higher than short term rates vica versa for a flat yield curve.

A steep yield curve is when the long term rates are higher than the short term rates, suggesting investors are not selling risk on assets and buying safe bonds, this is a healthy risk on environment. A flat yield curve is a period of economic concern as investors are selling risk on assets and buying safe bonds, this is when the blue line is falling and if below zero it may lead to a recession. Silver price tends to suffers during recessions.

Economic recovery is when the blue line moves from up from zero, this recovery leads to increased industrial and investor demand for silver. 


POINT: Yield curve recovery leads silver price recover.



The next indicator (red line) is the industrial producer price inflation ratio to the consumer price inflation, or PPI divided by CPI, or business versus the consumer. If during a period of yield curve recovery we also have hot producer price inflation the silver price recovery is likely to be more aggressive. 

Higher inflation arrives during periods of abundant money supply while suffering market constraints (or shortages). There is abundant money around (after FED printing) and COVID19 has disrupted supply chains resulting in shortages. High demand for items in short supply creates inflation.

Currently 2021 PPI is red hot versus CPI and if this persist like the periods of 1973 to 1982 and 2006 to 2014 (ex 2008 shock) silver will likely see higher prices.


POINT: Hot industrial price inflation will support higher silver prices. 





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Silver 1




The chart below shows Gann Angles drawn from zero (see more via our previous post), these are good for price pull back analysis. They currently show an ideal place for the bulls to buy back in at a great price.


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Silver Gann






Divider




NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.

Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.


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NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote...

.."The market is like a slowly revolving wheel: Whether the wheel will continue to revolve in the same direction, stand still or reverse depends upon the forces which come in contact with it hub and tread"...

Richard D Wyckoff


..."This [Federal Reserve Act] establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President Woodrow Wilson signs this bill, the invisible government of the monetary power will be legalized....the worst legislative crime of the ages is perpetrated by this banking and currency bill."...

Charles August Lindbergh Snr


.."If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks"..

John (Jack) Bogle


..“It is much harder to sell stocks correctly than to buy them correctly.” Because of the emotional aspect of trading, if a “stock went up, the average investor would hold because he wants more gains – he’s exhibiting greed. If the stock declines, he also holds on and hopes the stock will come back so he can at least sell and break even – he’s hoping against hope”..

Bernard Baruch


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Peter Lynch




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