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Created on: 8/19/2021 4:08:15 PM   Last Update: 8/19/2021 4:10:18 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 1003 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.

1 POST US Dollar Short Term Cycle Peak Near
us-dollar-short-term-cycle-peak-nearThe US dollar is likely to peak near or soon after the FED Jackson Hole speech. The FED is testing market sentiment.

The FED is likely to taper its balance sheet (via Bullard, say starting 2022 Q2), the taper is likely to be with mortgage backed securities (not US Treasuries, unless they want the yield curve to shoot up). This should not wobble the markets too much.

The US dollar is rallying into the Jackson Hole speech, therefore it is normal market action to see the unwinding of shorts positions. Also, in truth no one knows if the FED will make a mistake (remember the taper tantrum). If you review the CTFC COT reports there is no explosion of open interest which supports the idea that short positions are being closed.

Cycles confirm the current emotions surrounding Jackson Hole time frame.


Cycle 1 - Short term DXY peak expected soon.


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DXY 1





Cycle 2 - Long View of the above, notice the fractal.


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DXY 2








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Investing Quote...

.."The market is like a slowly revolving wheel: Whether the wheel will continue to revolve in the same direction, stand still or reverse depends upon the forces which come in contact with it hub and tread"...

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Ayn Rand

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.."When a company goes from crappy to less crappy, the stock goes up. When it goes from less crappy to good, the stock goes up more. When businesses become terrific, get out"..

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