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Created on: 8/19/2021 4:08:15 PM   Last Update: 8/19/2021 4:10:18 PM Posted by: RTT
1 POST US Dollar Short Term Cycle Peak Near
us-dollar-short-term-cycle-peak-nearThe US dollar is likely to peak near or soon after the FED Jackson Hole speech. The FED is testing market sentiment.

The FED is likely to taper its balance sheet (via Bullard, say starting 2022 Q2), the taper is likely to be with mortgage backed securities (not US Treasuries, unless they want the yield curve to shoot up). This should not wobble the markets too much.

The US dollar is rallying into the Jackson Hole speech, therefore it is normal market action to see the unwinding of shorts positions. Also, in truth no one knows if the FED will make a mistake (remember the taper tantrum). If you review the CTFC COT reports there is no explosion of open interest which supports the idea that short positions are being closed.

Cycles confirm the current emotions surrounding Jackson Hole time frame.


Cycle 1 - Short term DXY peak expected soon.


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DXY 1





Cycle 2 - Long View of the above, notice the fractal.


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DXY 2








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Investing Quote...

.."Thus, I affirm, every class of phenomena, whether in nature or in the stock market, must be subject to the universal law of causation and harmony. Every effect must have an adequate cause."..

William D Gann


.."Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception"..

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Mark Twain


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Paul Tudor Jones


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Arthur Miller, “The Crucible”
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