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Created on: 7/25/2021 2:55:09 PM Last Update: 7/25/2021 2:55:37 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 791 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
Bubble Watch - Maybe it only just started, Dow 50000 (RTT Plus)
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 This chart book suggest there is room to move for the fuel behind asset prices. A lot of room to move!
CAUTION: All boom talk is subject to a bearish EVENT (say):
1) Bear Sterns sub prime collateral issue in 2007
2) A new COVID XX and it is deadly
3) US interest rates and US dollar sky rocket
4) the FED does a 1937 and hikes rates
5) A major war
6) etc
This is David Hunter view, stocks shoot higher and an EVENT knocks over a single domino and they all start to fall, one by one. David Hunter forecast has a good chance of being correct, however the timing can be very different.
Chart 1 - Global Credit Impulse has more time to run, 12 to 18 months say
Chart 2 - A lower USD is required to bring back foreign buyers of US debt, this huge stimulus for emerging markets and the world who have USD base debt.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Chart 3 - Central Balance Sheet have exploded. Recently the ECB going nutter than the FED, and the reason for recent USD strength. Deflation fear motivates these banks.
The red line is FED balance sheet (green) as US domestic buying of US debt (grey). It is going sky high, they can not stop, but if they do or slow down, WATCH OUT.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Chart 4 - Buy Backs are back. The red line says there is a lot of room to move higher. Recent approval of US bank stress tests means large buybacks for banks are due, XLF and !BANK to go higher.
Chart 5 - NYSE Margin debt has exploded higher, the second chart says there is a lot of room to move and margin debt could go to extreme, as never seen before.
Chart 6 - Financial Conditions Index. So long as the black line stays above zero all is well. The financial system is working.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Chart 7 - The US housing debt is starting to explode. The red line is corporate debt, the green line is household (mostly housing) and the NEW juice behind the US economy.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
US housing prices are going higher at a faster rate. Its the new debt. More fuel for GDP. A new housing bubble.
A new US housing bubble (2006/07/08) rinse and repeat.
Chart 8 - Lending standards are EASY, money is flowing to fuel asset prices for corporate's and households. Happy times are here again.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
RTT Comments
- Global credit impulse says it all, easy money to run hot for a while yet.
- US housing is the new fuel for US GDP. Why? US Nominal GDP rate must stay above the US 10 yr interest rate.
- NYSE Margin Debt could go to numbers never seen before.
- Buybacks and FED juice is going push stocks higher.
- Get the feeling US mid terms in 2022 matter a lot to the DEM's.
- Guess what all this does to Bitcoin.
CAUTION: Here is a reminder, the FED can fix most minor bust but they can not fix a crash in housing. Remember this as the NEW US housing bubble evolves.
BOOM BUST Cycle repeats
SOURCE: This post was originally posted in our private RTT Plus members blog, and released on this public blog in a time delayed manner. RTT Plus members have access to private content immediately.Please be aware links to secured RTT Plus content will not work without a RTT Plus membership.
NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote...
.."While I have made it a practice to limit my risk in most cases, I can trace most of my principal losses to my failure to place stop orders when the trades were made."..
Richard D Wyckoff
.."No amount of evidence will ever persuade an idiot"..
Mark Twain
...“To me, the 'tape' is the final arbiter of any investment decision. I have a cardinal rule: Never fight the tape!”...
Martin Zweig
..“Investing should be like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement…go to Las Vegas.”...
Paul Samuelson
..."Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason."..
Mark Twain
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