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Created on: 3/14/2021 8:48:34 PM Last Update: 3/15/2021 2:01:50 AM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 472 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
1940s Yield Curve Control Review
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 Yield curve control was operational during and post World War 2 for a 9 year period.
The US stacked up a huge national war debt. With war comes with higher inflation, this time higher inflation could not be allowed to be followed by higher interest rates as the national income could not pay the interest bill and a sovereign debt default would follow. The response by the Federal reserve was to cap interest rates near 2.5% to contain the interest expense.
The chart below shows this period.
In the chart below while inflation (CPI) is above the 10 year interest rate this is known as 'negative yield' and purchasing power destruction of the currency (USD), hence why funds will flow into anti US dollar trades like gold, silver, bitcoin and oil.
The bond holders become the investors holding the short stick as inflation destroyers their capital, stocks do well, commodities do well. The problem for the FED is the bond holders are massive in number and for the FED to contain their selling they would have to buy all which is sold or convince this class of investor that it is best for national interest that they 'do not sell' and take the loss for the good of the nation. During World War 2 the bond investors made this patriotic choice, today maybe not so much, hence the FED buying could be exponential.
Currently the FED is jawboning the idea of yield curve control for a period of 2 years. Get the feeling the DEM's are targeting mid term elections with the FED help, hmmmm.
POINT: The FED's choice is to trash the dollar to save the economy, or trash the economy to save the dollar.
Reminder ..
..."I learned early that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that."..
Jesse Livermore
NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote...
..“The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses on Wall Street, even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.”..
Jesse Livermore
..."There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force, socialism - by vote. It is merely the difference between murder and suicide"...
Ayn Rand
.."A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation and whim"..
Kenneth Chang
.."It's easier to fool people, than to convince them they have been fooled"..
Mark Twain
..."If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're mis-informed."...
Mark Twain
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