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Created on: 3/5/2021 6:09:58 PM   Last Update: 3/5/2021 6:49:56 PM Posted by: RTT
1 POST Who is King? The Bond Market or the FED
who-is-king-the-bond-market-or-the-fedThe King Arthur story is battle between a false KING and the true KING. Generally the movie involves surprises, love and violence, and all this coming to the risk on markets very soon. 

The financial blog space expects the FED to do some sort of Yield Curve Control (YCC) to hold interest rates down while inflation moves higher, this is allowing inflation to run hot. The FED wishes to do this over time to deflate the debt away. Very similar to the 1940's post WW2, yields were pegged to 2% and risk on assets went sky high.

However Peter Boockvar suggest the FED may soon learn it is not in control and the true king of the markets is the BOND MARKET. Peter says simply the bond market is telling the FED to bite me!

The FED is not used to taking second fiddle to any challenger, and you can bet the FED will not give up the chair of market king easily, and they will try to smash the bond market into submission with forms YCC, TWIST and more QE.

Of course if the FED fails, all markets will be repriced to the new cost of money and you can bet the market violence will be spectacular.






The pressure of future inflation agrees with current bullish up swing in the cycle below. (Cycle tools are in readtheticker.com)


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BOND 1




Long term cycles, bullish for higher interest rates, inflation, commodities. Notice the 1940's period and how flat interest rates were, and what happened in the 1950's and after.


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BOND 2





The US debt percent of GDP now is much higher than 1940's, the chart below is only the Federal or Government debt, if you add on corporate and household, just double the yAxis percentage numbers. Currently the US interest expense is nearly equal to the US military budget.


debt






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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote...

..“What beat me was not having the brains enough to stick to my own game – that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play.”..

Jesse Livermore


The minute you get away from the fundamentals – whether it’s proper technique, work ethic, or mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game.

Basketball Legend Michael Jordan.


..."This [Federal Reserve Act] establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President Woodrow Wilson signs this bill, the invisible government of the monetary power will be legalized....the worst legislative crime of the ages is perpetrated by this banking and currency bill."...

Charles August Lindbergh Snr


..“One must search through a maze of complex and contradictory details to get to the significant facts … Then he must be able to operate coldly, clearly, and skilfully on the basis of those facts.” The challenge for the successful speculator is “how to disentangle the cold hard facts from the rather warm feelings of the people dealing with the facts.” Moreover, “if you get all the facts, your judgment can be right; if you don’t get all the facts, it can’t be right”...

Bernard Baruch


.."A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation and whim"..

Kenneth Chang




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