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Created on: 7/11/2020 5:41:59 PM Last Update: 7/11/2020 5:59:00 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 759 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
Dow 2020 Crash Watch - Update
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 Like 1929 the markets have bounced. This time it is on the back of the FED $6.5T money printing.
Previous Post: Dow 2020 Crash Watch
But can the FED blow $6T every time the market rolls down to test support.
Yes, maybe before the US 2020 elections the FED will do 'what it takes'. But post elections not so much, the year 2021 is a long way from the next election (presidential or congress) and defense of the markets may not be so supportive at $6T or $10T per market smash. The FED may hesitate, and that will be window for stocks to break lower.
The 36 month simple moving average (SMA) is a good indicator of the Dow Jones trend (36 months is three years). It has been a good indicator of Dow break outs over the last 100 years.
Now, if you take the difference between the Dow monthly close and the 36 month simple moving average and convert it into a percentage change this is known as the 'Detrending Price Oscillator' or DPO. The DPO highlights how well a moving average performs, it also highlights momentum towards or away from the moving average.
Lets review the SMA(36) and DPO(36) during similar market changes: 1929, 1974, 1987, 2000, 2007.
Chart 1929.
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Chart 1974
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Chart 1987
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Chart Now
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The concern is that this is on the table for 2021
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Stay frosty, the next 6 months will forge trends for the next few years.
NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote...
.."I have yet to find a man, in or out of Wall Street, who is able to make money in (markets) continuously or uninterruptedly. Like anyone else, I have good and bad periods."..
Richard D Wyckoff
..“It is much harder to sell stocks correctly than to buy them correctly.” Because of the emotional aspect of trading, if a “stock went up, the average investor would hold because he wants more gains – he’s exhibiting greed. If the stock declines, he also holds on and hopes the stock will come back so he can at least sell and break even – he’s hoping against hope”..
Bernard Baruch
.."A socialist is someone who has read Lenin and Marx. An anti-socialist is someone who undertstand Lenin and Marx"..
Ronald Reagan
.."Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn't mean politics won't take an interest in you"..
Pericles
.."A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation and whim"..
Kenneth Chang
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