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Created on: 7/11/2020 5:41:59 PM Last Update: 7/11/2020 5:59:00 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 464 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
Dow 2020 Crash Watch - Update
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 Like 1929 the markets have bounced. This time it is on the back of the FED $6.5T money printing.
Previous Post: Dow 2020 Crash Watch
But can the FED blow $6T every time the market rolls down to test support.
Yes, maybe before the US 2020 elections the FED will do 'what it takes'. But post elections not so much, the year 2021 is a long way from the next election (presidential or congress) and defense of the markets may not be so supportive at $6T or $10T per market smash. The FED may hesitate, and that will be window for stocks to break lower.
The 36 month simple moving average (SMA) is a good indicator of the Dow Jones trend (36 months is three years). It has been a good indicator of Dow break outs over the last 100 years.
Now, if you take the difference between the Dow monthly close and the 36 month simple moving average and convert it into a percentage change this is known as the 'Detrending Price Oscillator' or DPO. The DPO highlights how well a moving average performs, it also highlights momentum towards or away from the moving average.
Lets review the SMA(36) and DPO(36) during similar market changes: 1929, 1974, 1987, 2000, 2007.
Chart 1929.
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Chart 1974
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Chart 1987
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Chart Now
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The concern is that this is on the table for 2021
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Stay frosty, the next 6 months will forge trends for the next few years.
NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.
NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote...
..."By knowing the exact vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what point each will receive support and what point the greatest resistance is to be met"...
William D Gann
.."Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic... There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market."...
Paul Tudor Jones
.."A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation and whim"..
Kenneth Chang
..."The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different' "...
John Templeton
.."The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing"..
Philip Fisher
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We at readtheticker.com hold the view that a mix of stock chart technical analysis, Richard Wyckoff, William Gann and Jim Hurst methods plus market fundamentals allows the investor to formulate a very sound market opinion. These attributes are mutually inclusive and must be weighted equally before investing or trading in any Stock, ETF, Currency, Bond, Commodity, CFD or Mutual Fund
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