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Created on: 7/11/2020 5:41:59 PM Last Update: 7/11/2020 5:59:00 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 345 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
Dow 2020 Crash Watch - Update
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 Like 1929 the markets have bounced. This time it is on the back of the FED $6.5T money printing.
Previous Post: Dow 2020 Crash Watch
But can the FED blow $6T every time the market rolls down to test support.
Yes, maybe before the US 2020 elections the FED will do 'what it takes'. But post elections not so much, the year 2021 is a long way from the next election (presidential or congress) and defense of the markets may not be so supportive at $6T or $10T per market smash. The FED may hesitate, and that will be window for stocks to break lower.
The 36 month simple moving average (SMA) is a good indicator of the Dow Jones trend (36 months is three years). It has been a good indicator of Dow break outs over the last 100 years.
Now, if you take the difference between the Dow monthly close and the 36 month simple moving average and convert it into a percentage change this is known as the 'Detrending Price Oscillator' or DPO. The DPO highlights how well a moving average performs, it also highlights momentum towards or away from the moving average.
Lets review the SMA(36) and DPO(36) during similar market changes: 1929, 1974, 1987, 2000, 2007.
Chart 1929.
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Chart 1974
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Chart 1987
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Chart Now
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The concern is that this is on the table for 2021
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Stay frosty, the next 6 months will forge trends for the next few years.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.
NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote...
"Stock market technique is not an exact science. Stock (and commodities) prices are made by the minds of men (and women). Mechanical trading methods or mathematical formulas cannot compete with good human market judgment."..
Richard D Wyckoff
.."Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets"...
Stan Druckenmiller
After a question on how to become a better investor professional Mr Munger responded, ..“Read history, read history, read history."..
Charlie Munger
.."If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks"..
John (Jack) Bogle
.."The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them"
Peter Lynch
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We at readtheticker.com hold the view that a mix of stock chart technical analysis, Richard Wyckoff, William Gann and Jim Hurst methods plus market fundamentals allows the investor to formulate a very sound market opinion. These attributes are mutually inclusive and must be weighted equally before investing or trading in any Stock, ETF, Currency, Bond, Commodity, CFD or Mutual Fund
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