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Created on: 6/15/2020 3:30:29 PM   Last Update: 6/15/2020 4:11:50 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 264 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.

1 POST Where is the US Dollar trend headed ?
where-is-the-us-dollar-trend-headedJesse Livermore said we consider all matters concerning the market, this includes demand and supply fundamentals, general conditions and price patterns.

A high US dollar is the mighty destroyer of all, it explodes foreign debt and risk assets, and it will likely change US politics.


The chart below supports a greater supply of US dollars and a bearish dollar view.


The green line is the spread between the German 10 yr interest rate versus the US 10 yr interest rates, and it is showing bearish pressure on the US dollar. The black line is the trend of the US twin deficits and the US dollar as followed this trend over a very long time and the forecast is for deeper deficits into 2020-22.

The red line is the growth of the US dollar deposits in institutions (turned up side down, or inverted), the more supply of US dollars is bearish for the US dollar. The massive explosion of the red line is directly related to the US Federal Reserve money printing. The TRUMP administration is doing all it can to cap or lower the US dollar, maybe it is lagging the the bearish fundamentals, however we must wonder why the US dollar is not crashing down to $65.



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DXY 1





The bullish support for the the US dollar is the growth of US dollar assets and liabilities out side the US.



US assets



As you can see the levels are $30 to $40 trillion. Massive! This matters because a negative change in these levels will create a shortage of US dollars. If the holders of the above get nervous with economic conditions, COVID19 second/third wave or China - US relations this could promote a wave of selling, which is US dollar supply destruction, hence a shortage, which leads to greater demand and higher prices as the world needs US dollars to trade. 


The chart below is the US Dollar (DXY) with Richard Wyckoff demand and supply analysis.

Price action into 2020 has shown strength, testing the bull trap zone, currently the pullback is into middle (or muddle) ground and on the balance US dollar strength is still in the chart. However, price could easily test $92 - $94 and return with strength to $102. But in truth true demand and supply is expressed at support ($92) and resistance ($102) levels and while price is in the middle (or muddle) zone not much can be done, therefore we must wait for more price evidence to see which fundamentals are taking charge. If the financial shock of COVID19 is not over then higher US dollar prices can be expected as we all know the US FED can not create jobs with money printing. 


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DXY Wyckoff







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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.

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Investing Quote...

..“The Tape Reader’s profits should develop naturally. He should buy or sell because it is the thing to do – not because he wants to make a profit or fears to make a loss”…

Richard D. Wyckoff


.."Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it"..

Warren Buffett


Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.

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..“Investing should be like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement…go to Las Vegas.”...

Paul Samuelson


..“If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.”..

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