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Created on: 5/4/2020 3:46:53 PM   Last Update: 5/4/2020 4:34:03 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 532 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.

1 POST SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review
sp500-kitchin-cycle-reviewEarly 2020 the fear was the human race 'David' may suffer terribly under a frightening new flu (COVID 19) 'Goliath', well after few short months it is now clear the human race will win this trial by combat.

Previous Post: SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review

In the previous post the blog said (part 1)

.."We must conclude the major 900 period low is now in, and we are now in a up swing, which may top out ate 2020 or late 2021. Any future top out may only generate a 10% to 20% correction, of course this can be deemed very mild. This is expected, but the expected does not always play out."...

Well it sure did not, the flu lock downs around the world turned off economic activity and crushed the risk on asset price move. The end result is we finally got a true SP500 Kitchin low which we needed to finish the 900 daily cycle. (charts below). The result is some sort of short term US recession can be expected.

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LEI



In the previous post the blog said (part 2)

.."Rolling the dice to get '7' does not always work. Post US elections seasonal's aligned with a poor start of the decade seasonal trends, add on high global recession risk, add on a stock market slump tends to occur in the years ending 9,1,2,3,4 (like 1973, 1982, 1991, 2001, 2009 are all recession years), markets may get very interesting."...

This still holds true, and we are not there yet.

Reminder ..

decade cycle




As a Wyckoff logic proponent we have to respect the demand behind the good volume little 'a' rally (chart below), because it made it easily into and passed the middle ground of the prior consolidation without attracting huge supply. This has to be considered a strength (minor strength, and yes demand is present).

Yes the price smash down from 'B' to 'C' was a typical sign of weakness of a serious note, but this like anything can be (temporary some say) over ruled. To be sure the little 'a' rally is true demand we must expect a successful test to little 'b' to ensure no supply is present, and once the supply judder bars are clear then its open season for a major strength move to little 'c'.

The coming little 'b' and 'c' moves will tell us (and volume behind them) if demand is healthy, but until then current price action has to be considered bullish [subject to little 'b' test confirmation of course].

Little 'b' test should not take out the low of big 'C', even better if it does not take out the low of big 'A', holding above 2600 would be even better. 

The fundamentals behind the little a-b-c would be simply the bad news is known (kitchen sink news) and the market liquidity (via the FED) will find a home in risk on assets. The 2020 bearish smash is a bust rather than a crash starting a economic depression. Time will tell. 



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SPY 1



The Kitchin cycle has to be respected because as the historic DOW chart below shows it works.

The Kitchin cycle is a typical 900 period daily cycle (below the blog uses 880).

The chart above shows the fixed wall Kitchin cycle with the adaptive to price sine wave cycle via RTT custom indicator RTTHurstDPO.

The cycle charts suggest the real bearish market fun starts after 2020 year end.


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SPY 2



Divider




NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.

Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.


NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote...

..“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world.  But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer.  They will die poor.”...

Jesse Livermore


..“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”..

Benjamin Franklin


.."If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks"..

John (Jack) Bogle


...“People somehow think you must buy at the bottom and sell at the top to be successful in the market. That’s nonsense! The idea is to buy when the probability is greatest that the market is going to advance”...

Martin Zweig (The inspiration behind a number of Martin Zweig’s methods came, from Jesse Livermore).


My experience has been that in successful businesses and fund management companies, which performed well over the long-term, some courageous decisions were taken. Courageous fund managers reduce their positions when markets become frothy and accumulate equities when economic and social conditions are dire. They avoid the most popular sectors, which are therefore over-valued, and invest in neglected sectors because being neglected by investors they are by definition inexpensive. The point is that it is very hard and that it takes a lot of courage for a fund manager to avoid the most popular sectors and stocks and to invest in unloved assets. Finally, every investor understands the principle ‘buy low and sell high’, but when prices are low nobody wants to buy.

Marc Faber





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