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Created on: 4/22/2020 10:17:23 PM   Last Update: 4/22/2020 10:34:23 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 544 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.

1 POST Gold Stock Cycles
gold-stock-cyclesGold stocks are the crazy ride in the markets. The swing are so great it does not matter if you miss a bullish the break out as another deep pull back allows you to enter with ease.

The good news is the (!XAU) PHLX Gold/Silver Index (in the chart below) is very friendly to price cycles. These cycles can be used for timing markets, it also makes it clear if you fight the price cycle you may be in line for a heavy draw down.

At the moment XAU price is making new 52 week highs and the blue cycle line suggest a cycle top is due, therefore it may be wise to wait for price to peak and pullback before building positions. A tactical reason (Richard Ney logic) is the big boys have been accumulating in the friendly institutional stocks and this will attract profit taking [as they do not want to get too far ahead of the wider market] easily sending down the gold stock index and components of the XAU.

The judder bar for a XAU rally is expectation of a US dollar rally. A decent US dollar rally will see gold and gold stocks pullback, but as we all know the US dollar biggest short position is the US Government (they want a lower dollar), and the biggest long position is non US dollar assets in crisis (selling assets forces the buying back of US dollars). Hence the bail outs of dollar assets in crisis.

How well the FED defends their US dollar short position will influence how well the US dollar is capped under $105 on the DXY. This is the only game in down for the next 6 months, nothing else matters.  


If price has regular cycles, why fight the cycle. readtheticker.com charting science allows you to find and monitor the cycle better and cheaper than most. Check it out via our subscription service.


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XAU



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NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.

Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.


NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote...

..."I was brutal in self-analysis. He told his sons his conclusions: “Successful trading is always an emotional battle for the speculator, not an intelligent battle.”…He knew that his biggest enemy was his own emotions."...

Jesse Livermore


...“To me, the 'tape' is the final arbiter of any investment decision. I have a cardinal rule: Never fight the tape!”...

Martin Zweig


After a question on how to become a better investor professional Mr Munger responded, ..“Read history, read history, read history."..

Charlie Munger

..“One must search through a maze of complex and contradictory details to get to the significant facts … Then he must be able to operate coldly, clearly, and skilfully on the basis of those facts.” The challenge for the successful speculator is “how to disentangle the cold hard facts from the rather warm feelings of the people dealing with the facts.” Moreover, “if you get all the facts, your judgment can be right; if you don’t get all the facts, it can’t be right”...

Bernard Baruch


.."Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it"..

Warren Buffett




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