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Created on: 3/7/2020 2:09:05 PM   Last Update: 3/7/2020 10:02:54 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 472 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.

1 POST Dow 2020 Crash Watch
dow-2020-crash-watchThis is now on the table. Let us review three prior Dow volatility shocks.

But first let us remind you of the Sabbatical Cycle (previous post Shemitah Study

Re post of the 7 year cycle chart below. Take 2015 add on 7 equals 2022, which suggests if a bear market does a occur a low maybe found in 2022. In 2015 we had a 12% sell off just prior to the 2016 US elections. 


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Cycle




Back to main topic ..


The most volatile years in the Dow over the last 100 years are: 1929, 1937, 1987

Currently the Vix is above 35, and if this continues to stay high then the crash risk remains.

Fundamentals: The virus effect in the USA is to get worse, and with risk assets priced to perfection a quick and violent adjustment is set to reset prices, or worse begin a deep trend to lower prices.

Here is a list of risk creating news items over the last two years:

- Tariffs, trade War

- c19 Virus supply chain attack

- Central banks out of ammo (unless they change the rules: FED to buy stocks)

- Russia/Saudi oil price war (to attack US Shale).



Bubbles waiting for the pin: 

- World Wide corporate debt

- World wide sovereign debt

World wide Housing market

- US student loan debt

- US shale debt (part of corporate debt)

- Market leading stocks priced to perfection (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Facebook)

- Passive investing via ETFs (including, stock, debt and volatility ETFs)

- High Frequency Trading (Algo's work on the way up and down)

- Central bank balance sheets

- Wall street financial engineering (CDOs, COCOs)

- Zombie Banks (DB, HSBC)


Just to name a few.

Of course the need for cash will explode and contagion selling will occur. Please notice how GOLD is not acting like it did in the 2008 GFC crisis. Gold may escape contagion selling, and what does that tell you.



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2020




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1987




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1937




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1929




Divider




Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote...

.."Every movement in the market is the result of a natural law and of a Cause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can be determined years in advance. The future is but a repetition of the past, as the Bible plainly states"..

William D Gann


..“The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible”..

Bernard Baruch



..“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.”..

Bernard Baruch


..“The key to successful investing is having everyone agree with you — LATER.”..

Jim Grant

Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.

Nobel Laureate for Economics Paul Samuelson




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