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Created on: 2/24/2020 3:21:32 PM   Last Update: 2/24/2020 5:18:28 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 484 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.

1 POST Oil cycle leads the stock cycle
oil-cycle-leads-the-stock-cycleSure correlation is not causation, but this chart should be known by you.

We all know the world economy was waiting for a pin to prick the 'everything bubble', but no one had any idea of what the pin would look like.

Hence this is why the story of the black swan is so relevant.






There is massive debt behind the record high stock markets, there so much debt the political will required to allow central banks to print trillions to cover losses will likely effect elections. The point is printing money to cover billions is unlikely to upset anyone, however printing trillions will. In 2007 it was billions, in 202X it will be trillions. Yeah, get that passed the community who wants a roads or hospitals versus bailing out investment banks for a second time in a few decades. 

The 2020 virus may not be the Spanish flue (lets hope so), however its effects on highlighting how weak the world supply chain is as well as the increased risk of a human deadly virus is more prevalent and more so how poorly the health services react to a crisis. This means there will be a 'structural change' on how things go forward. Supply chains will become more local, less centralized, consumer physical goods may require virus protection manufacturing process. This will all cost more, therefore higher prices and maybe even a inflation shock is in the future.

Inflation is the one thing which can rock the 'bubble' world. Why? Who can control the long end of the bond market, well no one. Remember when the US 10 year hit 3.2% (Nov 2018) and the world could not handle it, forcing the FED to stop QT and start QE (via repo market).      

A famous quote, highlighting the power of the bond market:


In the 1990s, the Democratic political adviser James Carville said: ...“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”...




Stock market cycle matching to oil (at a lag of 144 months). Energy is in everything.


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Oil forecasting stocks




More can be found on this subject, via RTT Plus post called - Virus - Speculation economic effects





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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote...

.."TIME is the most important factor in determining market movements and by studying the past records of the averages or individual stocks you will be able to prove for yourself that history does repeat and that by knowing the past you can tell the future. … There is a definite relation between TIME and PRICE. … Now, by a study of the TIME PERIODS and TIME CYCLES you will learn why tops and bottoms are found at certain times and why Resistance Levels are so strong at certain times and bottoms and tops hold around them. … The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles." ..

William D Gann


.."Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway"..

Warren Buffett


.."Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it"..

Warren Buffett


.."Until an hour before the Devil fell, God thought him beautiful in Heaven"..

Arthur Miller, “The Crucible”
 [Contrarian Investing]





.."October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February."..

Mark Twain




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We at readtheticker.com hold the view that a mix of stock chart technical analysis, Richard Wyckoff, William Gann and Jim Hurst methods plus market fundamentals allows the investor to formulate a very sound market opinion. These attributes are mutually inclusive and must be weighted equally before investing or trading in any Stock, ETF, Currency, Bond, Commodity, CFD or Mutual Fund



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