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Created on: 2/25/2024 2:10:23 PM Last Update: 2/25/2024 2:43:44 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 292 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
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Long term bond games will send investors into gold
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 The mighty US of A has $10,000,000,000 (trillion) of US dollar debt to sell this year.
It is only February 2024, and the 20 yr and 30 yr bonds are not being swamped with demand.
Chart 1 - Ugly auction, this trend will continue until Yellen bends the knee.
Chart 2 - 10 yr interest rates near multi decade highs.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
It seems that with interest rates near 4.25% (10 yr) and the US dollar (DXY) near $105, this does not encourage foreign investors to buy long term US Treasuries. Therefore, either or both the interest rate needs to rise and/or the US dollar needs to fall to encourage investors to by 20 yr and 30 yr US Treasury auctions.
Chart 3 - Rev Repo has fallen from $2.2 trillion to near zero.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
The US Department of Treasury has been using the cash in the temporary reverse repo to transfer US debt to investors as TBills. This will be over by April 2024. Next, they can use the Treasury checking account (TGA) for another $800M. Then what? A much lower US dollar is an option.
Of course a trending lower US dollar will fuel gold move to higher, this of course will improve the profits of gold and silver stocks.
Chart 4 - XAU building higher lows.
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Chart 5 - GDXJ base building.
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Also, US corporations are soon to hit a re financing wall with much higher interest rates (up 100%). Higher interest expenses will result in fewer people employed. Rising unemployment in an election year will not be attractive, hence another good reason to lower interest rates and the US dollar.
Chart 6 - Corporate interest expense to explode soon.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
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Investing Quote...
..."When I couldn’t play according to my system, which was based on study and experience, I went in and gambled. I hoped to win, instead of knowing that I ought to win on form."...
Jesse Livermore
.."When a company goes from crappy to less crappy, the stock goes up. When it goes from less crappy to good, the stock goes up more. When businesses become terrific, get out"..
Peter Lynch
.."Socialism in general has a record of failure so blatant that only an intellectual could ignore or evade it"..
Thomas Sowell
.."Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it"..
Warren Buffett
...“People somehow think you must buy at the bottom and sell at the top to be successful in the market. That’s nonsense! The idea is to buy when the probability is greatest that the market is going to advance”...
Martin Zweig (The inspiration behind a number of Martin Zweig’s methods came, from Jesse Livermore).
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