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Created on: 1/23/2024 5:29:30 PM Last Update: 1/23/2024 6:27:52 PM Posted by: RTT WARNING: This entry is 286 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
Market moving macro in 2024
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It is time for the FED to hire Jordan Belfort (Wolf of WallStreet fame) to sell US government debt. After all, Jordan Belfort is a man who can sell tea to China.
Chart 1 - The red line generates the income to pay interest on the blue line. If the rate of change of debt growth and the cost of debt are an ever increasing burden on the cash flow generated by growth, something is going to structurally break. Gold near $2,000 USD is a bargain (same price as 2011)!
Chart 2 - Here is a smarter chart of Chart 1 above. When the fat red line sinks and falls below zero, this is a period of time when the rate of change in debt growth is much faster than GDP (not adjusted for inflation). Gold says this matters. The gold price moves higher in such an environment.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Chart 3 - China CPI is in deflation (CPI below zero). The FED broke China! President Xi recently visited the USA and met with some heavy hitters to help re-inflate China. It is mostly likely to coordinate Chinese stimulus with US election year stimulus. China cannot afford the negative effects of prolonged deflation periods.
ZH summary says it all.
Which means China now has two options: pretend that the failed policies it has been doing (or pretending to do) so far has been successful, which it likely will until there is just too much blood on the streets, or it will finally capitulate and unleash the biggest fiscal stimulus ever seen in China: we are talking multiple trillions here, and in dollars not yuan, consequences be damned, because we are nearing the point of peak panic where Beijing will do anything at all to buy social order and stability for just a few more months. And once all those tens of trillions in Chinese deposits start fleeing, that's when the real meltup in non-fiat assets - read gold, silver, crypto, fine art, wines, etc - will truly start.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
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is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote...
..."Vibration is fundamental; nothing is exempt from this law; it is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe."...
William D Gann
.."A government is the most dangerous threat to a man's rights: it holds a legal monopoly on the use of physical force against legally disarmed victims"..
Ayn Rand
...“To me, the 'tape' is the final arbiter of any investment decision. I have a cardinal rule: Never fight the tape!”...
Martin Zweig
.."Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. It's really a great invention and I wouldn't under-estimate the value of that, but they're not designed to take care of social needs"..
George Soros
.."It's easier to fool people, than to convince them they have been fooled"..
Mark Twain
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