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Created on: 7/22/2023 11:17:24 PM Last Update: 7/22/2023 11:44:46 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 444 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
US tax receipts hurting the dollar
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 US tax receipts must continue to grow to fuel the confidence of the US debt markets.
Previous Post: Gold and Oil fundamentals are married together
In chart 1, the red dots marked A to F show the periods where US Federal Tax receipts showed negative growth year over year (YOY). US tax receipts have slowed due to the inflation fighting measures applied by world governments. US inflation has fallen from 9% to 3%. Job done! Now some tight monetary controls can be withdrawn, a lower dollar for one. Each red dot is also timed with a slump (in different degrees) in the US Dollar index (DXY).
POINT: A fall in the US dollar is one of the methods used to inject more US dollar liquidity, or easier money, this tends to be inflationary. A rise in the US dollar removes dollar liquidity, or tighter money, this tends to be deflationary.
When the US dollar falls, it allows for higher prices for gold and oil. Depending on oil fundamentals at the time, both oil and gold can rise dramatically higher. Tax receipt slumps A, C, D, E, and F enjoyed handsome games on recovery.
Currently YOY% change of US Tax Receipts are negative, this should be followed by a lower US dollar and higher gold and oil prices over the next 6 to 12 months. By how much, we shall see.
Chart 1 - US dollar, US tax receipts, gold and oil.
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Chart 2 - US Dollar Cycle: Plenty of room to move down for the DXY.
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Chart 3 - US Dow Jones Cycle: As a falling US dollar is easy money liquidity injection, will it be enough for stocks to move higher in line with 900 day period cycle. Why not!
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Investing Quote...
.."I did exactly the wrong thing. The cotton showed me a loss and I kept it. The wheat showed me a profit and I sold it out. Of all the speculative blunders there are few greater than trying to average a losing game. Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit."..
Jesse Livermore
.."The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing"..
Philip Fisher
.."The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market."..
George Soros
..“I buy on the assumption they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years” and “Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.”..
Warren Buffet
..The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell"..
John Templeton
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