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Created on: 10/11/2022 3:19:45 PM Last Update: 10/11/2022 5:08:38 PM Posted by: RTT
1 POST
US Dollar Cycle Peak Near - Update
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 Us dollar is extended, now its breaking the most important markets in the world.
The US dollar is at a regular cycle peak, similar to 2015 rally.
It has rallied on the back of the FED fighting inflation harder and faster than the Europeans.
Going into the winter of 2022/23 Euro zone inflation is going to go complete nuts, the ECB is going to have to react, they are going to have to hike rates further than they want. This late reaction to the inflation fight will take the extreme peak out of the US dollar.
Forecast: FED hikes 0.75% at the November FOMC, and it adjust hikes to either 0.25% or 0.50%. But all hikes are done once 4.5% is reached on the FED FUND rate. But the Europeans are just getting started with a long way to go.
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Another reason is the higher US dollar has forced Foreigners to sell US Treasuries to fund their own systems. Just like 2016 and 2020. All this while the FED is selling $90BN a month. Who is buying, Santa! A marginally lower US dollar will allow some buyers to come back into the market. After all 3% to 4% on the US 10 yr bond is better than most dividend stocks.
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The US corporate debt market is $13T. It is now in stress. Corporation funding is entering crisis mode. Panic is the option. Corporate debt is higher than 2008, so BAA rates do not have to move that much to create a mess.
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A roll over of the US dollar cycle will benefit these bottoming cycles. Bitcoin, Stocks, Silver (and gold). Well just about everything
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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote...
.."I believe that the public wants to be led, to be instructed, to be told what to do. They want reassurance. They will always move en masse, a mob, a herd, a group, because people want the safety of human company. They are afraid to stand alone because they want to be safely included within the herd, not to be the lone calf standing on the desolate, dangerous, wolf-patrolled prairie of contrary opinion."..
Jesse Livermore
.."Wait for that wisest of all counselors, Time"..
Pericles
.."Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. It's really a great invention and I wouldn't under-estimate the value of that, but they're not designed to take care of social needs"..
George Soros
..“The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible”..
Bernard Baruch
.."I never found beauty in the longing for the impossible and never found the possible to be beyond my reach"...
Ayn Rand
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