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Created on: 8/21/2022 6:31:37 PM   Last Update: 8/21/2022 6:48:36 PM Posted by: RTT
1 POST Silver 2023 looks bright - Update
silver-2023-looks-bright--updateSilver does well when the economy is starting a recovery phase. Big shorts have to cover forcing the silver price higher.

Previous Post: Silver 2023 looks bright

The silver game changed at the bottom of the 2008 GFC crisis, US Debt to GDP exploded, making the investing component of silver as important as the industrial side of silver. 

During all the silver bottoms of 2009, 2013, 2016 and 2020 the US PMI sinks and then recovers followed by a US dollar sell off.

2009 - GFC, FED and PBOC saved the world.
2013 - QE on and off.
2016 - China slow down, Nov US Elections, Trump tax cuts.
2020 - COVID crash, Fed pump.

The silver recovery in 2013 was scuttled by the strong US dollar as the Fed removed QE before other central banks in Europe and Asia. This means the silver long trade off the bottom of PMI lows has a 75% success rate. 

Today the silver trade is reset. Now PMIs are falling, the dollar is strong and silver is pulling back. Rinse and repeat.

US Economic data is falling hard. Housing sentiment and PMIs are crashing. The FED has hiked short term interest rates in quick time in a all out effort to lower the US inflation figure of 9.1%. To push so hard one way suggest the swing back the other way will be an opportunity to invest. 


Chart 1 - Silver, US PMIs, US Dollar, US Debt to GDP%


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Silver



Keep an eye on silver and gold.





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