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Created on: 7/15/2022 5:16:48 PM Last Update: 7/16/2022 8:15:28 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 436 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
The stocks crash window is now open
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 It will get worse only if the FED or Treasury druids do something very dumb!
Historically July, August and September are the worst months for stocks, Oct is in 4th place.
Two dumb plays which could make things worse.
Yellen has been encouraging the US dollar higher to $110 DXY to fight inflation (oil) and is also trying to hurt Russia. The last time Yellen did this with some success was in 2014/15 while the US debt levels where under 100% of GDP and the strong dollar did not hurt stocks, bonds or tax receipts. Now this is not the case, a strong dollar is hurting the US and the debt to GDP is over 120%. If would be very dumb to continue the strong dollar policy. The latest news is that Yellen is overseas organising currency swaps for US dollars.
The FED is intending to decrease their balance sheet by $95BN a month (starting Sept 2022). The Move index measures the risk in the US treasury market and the current risk is now higher than the COVID March 2020 crash. The FED's number one job is to ensure the US Treasury market is operational, and the Move index says it will be very dumb to add more supply to the debt markets. The FED hiking interest rates is a show for the uniformed, the US 1 yr and 2 yr are already over 3% so who cares about the FED Fund rate. Watch for FED comments on their balance sheet reduction plans or reversal of them in the next few weeks.
The next 3 months could be the lows in the risk on markets. Well maybe, ha!
Yes we know: could be, would be, should be.
But the FED and treasury can do some very dumb stuff!
This blog likes Larry MacDonald of the BearTrapsReport comments here.
Chart 1 - Here are two examples when the central planning druids did dumb things. Both resulted in market crashes which latter required more QE and debt to climb out of.
Chart 2 - Market tightening (strong dollar represents a shortage of dollars for world transactions) may be a cycle reversal or at least a pause is near.
Chart 3 - When the US dollar supply increases (from a lower US dollar) anti US dollar trades do well.
Chart 4 - Copper (and oil) will show the way.
NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote...
.."[Point and] figure charts are more valuable than vertical [bar] charts"..
Richard D Wyckoff
.."The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not"...
Thomas Jefferson
.....“I measure what's going on, and I adapt to it. I try to get my ego out of the way. The market is smarter than I am so I bend.”..
Martin Zweig
..“It is much harder to sell stocks correctly than to buy them correctly.” Because of the emotional aspect of trading, if a “stock went up, the average investor would hold because he wants more gains – he’s exhibiting greed. If the stock declines, he also holds on and hopes the stock will come back so he can at least sell and break even – he’s hoping against hope”..
Bernard Baruch
..."The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different' "...
John Templeton
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