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Created on: 7/15/2022 5:16:48 PM   Last Update: 7/16/2022 8:15:28 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 317 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.

1 POST The stocks crash window is now open
the-stocks-crash-window-is-now-openIt will get worse only if the FED or Treasury druids do something very dumb!

Historically July, August and September are the worst months for stocks, Oct is in 4th place.

Two dumb plays which could make things worse.

Yellen has been encouraging the US dollar higher to $110 DXY to fight inflation (oil) and is also trying to hurt Russia. The last time Yellen did this with some success was in 2014/15 while the US debt levels where under 100% of GDP and the strong dollar did not hurt stocks, bonds or tax receipts. Now this is not the case, a strong dollar is hurting the US and the debt to GDP is over 120%. If would be very dumb to continue the strong dollar policy. The latest news is that Yellen is overseas organising currency swaps for US dollars. 

The FED is intending to decrease their balance sheet by $95BN a month (starting Sept 2022). The Move index measures the risk in the US treasury market and the current risk is now higher than the COVID March 2020 crash. The FED's number one job is to ensure the US Treasury market is operational, and the Move index says it will be very dumb to add more supply to the debt markets. The FED hiking interest rates is a show for the uniformed, the US 1 yr and 2 yr are already over 3% so who cares about the FED Fund rate. Watch for FED comments on their balance sheet reduction plans or reversal of them in the next few weeks. 


The next 3 months could be the lows in the risk on markets. Well maybe, ha! 

Yes we know: could be, would be, should be.
But the FED and treasury can do some very dumb stuff!

This blog likes Larry MacDonald of the BearTrapsReport comments here.


Chart 1 - Here are two examples when the central planning druids did dumb things. Both resulted in market crashes which latter required more QE and debt to climb out of.


DOW




Chart 2 - Market tightening (strong dollar represents a shortage of dollars for world transactions) may be a cycle reversal or at least a pause is near.



USD




Chart 3 - When the US dollar supply increases (from a lower US dollar) anti US dollar trades do well.


Gold





Chart 4 - Copper (and oil) will show the way.


Copper



Divider




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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.


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Investing Quote...

.."There were times when my plans went wrong and my stocks did not run true to form, but did the opposite of what they should have done if they had kept up their regard for precedent. But they did not hit me very hard – they couldn’t, with my shoestring margins."...

Jesse Livermore


.."Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. It's really a great invention and I wouldn't under-estimate the value of that, but they're not designed to take care of social needs"..

George Soros



..“The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible”..

Bernard Baruch



..“Investing should be like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement…go to Las Vegas.”...

Paul Samuelson


.."The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market."..

George Soros




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