|
|
|
|
Created on: 7/15/2022 5:16:48 PM Last Update: 7/16/2022 8:15:28 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 317 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
The stocks crash window is now open
|
 It will get worse only if the FED or Treasury druids do something very dumb!
Historically July, August and September are the worst months for stocks, Oct is in 4th place.
Two dumb plays which could make things worse.
Yellen has been encouraging the US dollar higher to $110 DXY to fight inflation (oil) and is also trying to hurt Russia. The last time Yellen did this with some success was in 2014/15 while the US debt levels where under 100% of GDP and the strong dollar did not hurt stocks, bonds or tax receipts. Now this is not the case, a strong dollar is hurting the US and the debt to GDP is over 120%. If would be very dumb to continue the strong dollar policy. The latest news is that Yellen is overseas organising currency swaps for US dollars.
The FED is intending to decrease their balance sheet by $95BN a month (starting Sept 2022). The Move index measures the risk in the US treasury market and the current risk is now higher than the COVID March 2020 crash. The FED's number one job is to ensure the US Treasury market is operational, and the Move index says it will be very dumb to add more supply to the debt markets. The FED hiking interest rates is a show for the uniformed, the US 1 yr and 2 yr are already over 3% so who cares about the FED Fund rate. Watch for FED comments on their balance sheet reduction plans or reversal of them in the next few weeks.
The next 3 months could be the lows in the risk on markets. Well maybe, ha!
Yes we know: could be, would be, should be.
But the FED and treasury can do some very dumb stuff!
This blog likes Larry MacDonald of the BearTrapsReport comments here.
Chart 1 - Here are two examples when the central planning druids did dumb things. Both resulted in market crashes which latter required more QE and debt to climb out of.
Chart 2 - Market tightening (strong dollar represents a shortage of dollars for world transactions) may be a cycle reversal or at least a pause is near.
Chart 3 - When the US dollar supply increases (from a lower US dollar) anti US dollar trades do well.
Chart 4 - Copper (and oil) will show the way.
NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.
Support this work by buying us a hot drink by CLICKING HERE. If you would like make greater contribution, please make a donation by CLICKING HERE
NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote...
.."There were times when my plans went wrong and my stocks did not run true to form, but did the opposite of what they should have done if they had kept up their regard for precedent. But they did not hit me very hard – they couldn’t, with my shoestring margins."...
Jesse Livermore
.."Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. It's really a great invention and I wouldn't under-estimate the value of that, but they're not designed to take care of social needs"..
George Soros
..“The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible”..
Bernard Baruch
..“Investing should be like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement…go to Las Vegas.”...
Paul Samuelson
.."The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market."..
George Soros
|
|
|
|
We at readtheticker.com hold the view that a mix of stock chart technical analysis, Richard Wyckoff, William Gann and Jim Hurst methods plus market fundamentals allows the investor to formulate a very sound market opinion. These attributes are mutually inclusive and must be weighted equally before investing or trading in any Stock, ETF, Currency, Bond, Commodity, CFD or Mutual Fund
|
|
 | Pages |
| | 1. Blog Performance Review |
| | 2. List of the best blog posts |
| MostRecent |
|  | Bitcoin has found its natural vibration - Update |
| | The Dow has found its natural vibration |
| | SP500 cycle low has bearish sentiment support |
| | Stagflation now, as deflation risks grow |
|  | Monetary Debasement Cycle Review |
 | Ney(1) |
 | | US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles |
 | Crypto Currency(25) |
| Central Banks(16) |
| Crisis Watch(9) |
| Wyckoff(3) |
| Cycles(4) |
| Gann(13) |
| Chart Review(17) |
| Browsing(120) |
| RTT TV(15) |
| Sector Watch(28) |
| RTT Tools(43) |
| Wyckoff 2.0(42) |
| Mystery Trader(6) |
| | Elliot Wave within Wyckoff Logic |
| Market Strategy(71) |
| Cycle Review(72) |
| Swing Trade Idea(48) |
| Market Calls(23) |
| Investors(105) |
| | Hidden Pivot Point and Wyckoff logic |
| News(7) |
| Bonds(19) |
| Metals and Forex(163) |
| Gann Wyckoff Hurst(119) |
| Wall Street(25) |
| Ticker Review(35) |
| Uncategorized(2) |
| | Bitcoin Chart Review |
| Market Review(96) |
| Jokes(28) |
 | Economic(92) |
| | Stagflation now, as deflation risks grow |
| | Love of property investment will die |
| | Money supply crash will force a sharp FED reaction |
| | Powell has a debt problem |
| | Powell doing a Volker to crush inflation, yeah right! |
| | Bubble Watch - Maybe it only just started, Dow 50000 - Update 1 (RTT Plus) |
| | Bubble Watch - Maybe it only just started, Dow 50000 (RTT Plus) |
| | US is bound by these economic rules (RTT Plus) |
| | Dow Jones Utility index could trade like the FANGs |
| | Funds are getting ready to move out of USA |
| | US Economic Review 2019Q4 |
| | Bond Market, Houston we have a problem! |
| 202305(3) |
| 202304(4) |
| 202303(2) |
| 202302(4) |
| 202301(3) |
| 202212(4) |
| 202211(3) |
| 202210(5) |
| 202209(3) |
| 202208(4) |
| 202207(4) |
| 202206(3) |
| 202205(5) |
| 202204(3) |
| 202203(3) |
| 202202(2) |
| 202201(4) |
| 202112(5) |
| 202111(4) |
| 202110(3) |
| 202109(5) |
| 202108(5) |
| 202107(8) |
| 202106(9) |
| 202105(7) |
| 202104(4) |
| 202103(7) |
| 202102(6) |
| 202101(8) |
| 202012(3) |
| 202011(5) |
| 202010(3) |
| 202009(4) |
| 202008(4) |
| 202007(4) |
| 202006(3) |
| 202005(5) |
| 202004(4) |
| 202003(10) |
| 202002(5) |
| 202001(5) |
| 201912(5) |
| 201911(5) |
| 201910(7) |
| 201909(5) |
| 201908(4) |
| 201907(5) |
| 201906(5) |
| 201905(7) |
| 201904(5) |
| 201903(8) |
| 201902(5) |
| 201901(6) |
| 201812(4) |
| 201811(5) |
| 201810(7) |
| 201809(4) |
| 201808(6) |
| 201807(5) |
| 201806(4) |
| 201805(7) |
| 201804(6) |
| | The Power of Simple Moving Averages - Hurst Cycles, Part 4 |
| | The Power of Simple Moving Averages - Crude Oil Warning, Part 3 |
| | The Power of Simple Moving Averages, Part 2 |
| | RTT browsing latest.. |
| | Silver COT Reports are bullish, cycles will tell us when. |
| | The Power of Simple Moving Averages, Part 1 |
 RSS
Atom
FeedBurner| Email Delivery
Blog Links
Symbols used in blog
AAPL AMZN AORD AUY BB BTC COP CRUDE DIA DJI DXY ETH EUR FB FXE GDX GDXJ GLD GOOG HL HMY HPR HUI INDU JJC LTC MCD NCM NEM NFLX OIL PALL QQQ RGLD SLV SPY SSEC SSRM TLT TNX TRAN TYX UAN URG UTIL VIX XAU XLE XLU
|