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Created on: 5/13/2022 9:11:23 PM Last Update: 5/13/2022 9:30:11 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 498 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
Powell doing a Volker to crush inflation, yeah right!
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 In 1979, Volker was equal to Goliath as he had a good chance of crushing inflation, today the debt Goliath is massive.
In the video below David Rosenberg explains the FED is on a 'Volker' mission to crush inflation no matter what happens to risk on assets like stocks.
David Rosenberg thinking is challenged when ask about the current US debt levels, as Paul Volker did say that he could not have crushed inflation with the debt levels of today. David Rosenberg simply says the FED is going to hike no matter what, until something very serious breaks.
The question remains will something break in the markets after: 1%, 1.5% or 2% hikes. No one knows. But as the US debt to GDP% is over 120% this suggest sooner rather than latter has the best odds. This blogs says near 2022 Q3.
Will Powell even be able to start Quantitative tightening (QT or reducing the FED balance sheet)? Or is the next major FED move to Pivot [like 2018] back to the extremely dovish monetary side.
Volker rate hike conditions 1979 to 1982
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Powell rate hike conditions 2022+
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We are at the pain line now. Pension funds are fearful of valuation crash already.
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NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
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Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote...
.."[Point and] figure charts are more valuable than vertical [bar] charts"..
Richard D Wyckoff
.."The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not"...
Thomas Jefferson
.....“I measure what's going on, and I adapt to it. I try to get my ego out of the way. The market is smarter than I am so I bend.”..
Martin Zweig
..“It is much harder to sell stocks correctly than to buy them correctly.” Because of the emotional aspect of trading, if a “stock went up, the average investor would hold because he wants more gains – he’s exhibiting greed. If the stock declines, he also holds on and hopes the stock will come back so he can at least sell and break even – he’s hoping against hope”..
Bernard Baruch
..."The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different' "...
John Templeton
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