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Created on: 8/19/2021 4:08:15 PM Last Update: 8/19/2021 4:10:18 PM Posted by: RTT
1 POST
US Dollar Short Term Cycle Peak Near
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 The US dollar is likely to peak near or soon after the FED Jackson Hole speech. The FED is testing market sentiment.
The FED is likely to taper its balance sheet (via Bullard, say starting 2022 Q2), the taper is likely to be with mortgage backed securities (not US Treasuries, unless they want the yield curve to shoot up). This should not wobble the markets too much.
The US dollar is rallying into the Jackson Hole speech, therefore it is normal market action to see the unwinding of shorts positions. Also, in truth no one knows if the FED will make a mistake (remember the taper tantrum). If you review the CTFC COT reports there is no explosion of open interest which supports the idea that short positions are being closed.
Cycles confirm the current emotions surrounding Jackson Hole time frame.
Cycle 1 - Short term DXY peak expected soon.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Cycle 2 - Long View of the above, notice the fractal.
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NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote...
.."If we wish to avert failure in speculation we must deal with causes. Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfect relationship. There is no chance in nature, because mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things. Faraday said: `There is nothing in the Universe but mathematical points of force."...
William D Gann
My experience has been that in successful businesses and fund management companies, which performed well over the long-term, some courageous decisions were taken. Courageous fund managers reduce their positions when markets become frothy and accumulate equities when economic and social conditions are dire. They avoid the most popular sectors, which are therefore over-valued, and invest in neglected sectors because being neglected by investors they are by definition inexpensive. The point is that it is very hard and that it takes a lot of courage for a fund manager to avoid the most popular sectors and stocks and to invest in unloved assets. Finally, every investor understands the principle ‘buy low and sell high’, but when prices are low nobody wants to buy.
Marc Faber
.."Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected"..
George Soros
.."Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic... There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market."...
Paul Tudor Jones
.."The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule"
Warren Buffett
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