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Created on: 8/19/2021 4:08:15 PM Last Update: 8/19/2021 4:10:18 PM Posted by: RTT
1 POST
US Dollar Short Term Cycle Peak Near
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 The US dollar is likely to peak near or soon after the FED Jackson Hole speech. The FED is testing market sentiment.
The FED is likely to taper its balance sheet (via Bullard, say starting 2022 Q2), the taper is likely to be with mortgage backed securities (not US Treasuries, unless they want the yield curve to shoot up). This should not wobble the markets too much.
The US dollar is rallying into the Jackson Hole speech, therefore it is normal market action to see the unwinding of shorts positions. Also, in truth no one knows if the FED will make a mistake (remember the taper tantrum). If you review the CTFC COT reports there is no explosion of open interest which supports the idea that short positions are being closed.
Cycles confirm the current emotions surrounding Jackson Hole time frame.
Cycle 1 - Short term DXY peak expected soon.
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Cycle 2 - Long View of the above, notice the fractal.
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NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote...
..“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”...
Jesse Livermore
..“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”..
Benjamin Franklin
.."If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks"..
John (Jack) Bogle
...“People somehow think you must buy at the bottom and sell at the top to be successful in the market. That’s nonsense! The idea is to buy when the probability is greatest that the market is going to advance”...
Martin Zweig (The inspiration behind a number of Martin Zweig’s methods came, from Jesse Livermore).
My experience has been that in successful businesses and fund management companies, which performed well over the long-term, some courageous decisions were taken. Courageous fund managers reduce their positions when markets become frothy and accumulate equities when economic and social conditions are dire. They avoid the most popular sectors, which are therefore over-valued, and invest in neglected sectors because being neglected by investors they are by definition inexpensive. The point is that it is very hard and that it takes a lot of courage for a fund manager to avoid the most popular sectors and stocks and to invest in unloved assets. Finally, every investor understands the principle ‘buy low and sell high’, but when prices are low nobody wants to buy.
Marc Faber
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We at readtheticker.com hold the view that a mix of stock chart technical analysis, Richard Wyckoff, William Gann and Jim Hurst methods plus market fundamentals allows the investor to formulate a very sound market opinion. These attributes are mutually inclusive and must be weighted equally before investing or trading in any Stock, ETF, Currency, Bond, Commodity, CFD or Mutual Fund
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