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Created on: 5/21/2021 2:20:51 AM Last Update: 5/21/2021 2:21:03 AM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 678 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
US April Hot Inflation Report - So when will the FED tigthen? (RTT Plus)
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 When inflation is hot (CPI) the normal reaction is call for higher interest rates.
The FED does not want higher interest rates.
They want inflation to inflate asset prices to deflate the debt away.
The FED will only raise rates when their political masters allow them to, and as the mid terms are coming up in Nov 2022, do not bet on the FED raising rates (or reducing their balance sheet) any time soon.
You can watch the FED FUNDS Rate to employment here (RTT Plus >> RTT charts), the FED is already lagging, just like after 2009 March low.
Mohamed El-Erian doesn't think Fed will prematurely respond to high inflation
Extract .."no action from the FED for many months"...
and Stealth Yield Curve Control is already active.
Of course if the FED did tighten then risk on markets will fall 15% to 30% and you can bet the FED will print baby print just like they did during March 2020 COVID scare.
RTT's research suggests the FED has chosen to let inflation to run hot (CPI > Interest rates [or negative yield]) for some time, for the benefit of risk on investors, of course the release valve will be a lower US dollar and bond holders getting crushed.
Hedge Fund guys are dreaming of FED tightening (higher interest rates or balance sheet reduction) to allow them to load up into the hot trends (or get out of bonds), as they know the SP500 COVID March 2020 'v' reversal would be a great way to profit.
Like this guy ...
SOURCE: This post was originally posted in our private RTT Plus members blog, and released on this public blog in a time delayed manner. RTT Plus members have access to private content immediately.Please be aware links to secured RTT Plus content will not work without a RTT Plus membership.
NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote...
..."I learned early that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that."..
Jesse Livermore
.."Until an hour before the Devil fell, God thought him beautiful in Heaven"..
Arthur Miller, “The Crucible”
[Contrarian Investing]
.."Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets"...
Stan Druckenmiller
.."Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception"..
George Soros
.."It's easier to fool people, than to convince them they have been fooled"..
Mark Twain
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