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Created on: 3/5/2021 6:09:58 PM Last Update: 3/5/2021 6:49:56 PM Posted by: RTT
1 POST
Who is King? The Bond Market or the FED
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 The King Arthur story is battle between a false KING and the true KING. Generally the movie involves surprises, love and violence, and all this coming to the risk on markets very soon.
The financial blog space expects the FED to do some sort of Yield Curve Control (YCC) to hold interest rates down while inflation moves higher, this is allowing inflation to run hot. The FED wishes to do this over time to deflate the debt away. Very similar to the 1940's post WW2, yields were pegged to 2% and risk on assets went sky high.
However Peter Boockvar suggest the FED may soon learn it is not in control and the true king of the markets is the BOND MARKET. Peter says simply the bond market is telling the FED to bite me!
The FED is not used to taking second fiddle to any challenger, and you can bet the FED will not give up the chair of market king easily, and they will try to smash the bond market into submission with forms YCC, TWIST and more QE.
Of course if the FED fails, all markets will be repriced to the new cost of money and you can bet the market violence will be spectacular.
The pressure of future inflation agrees with current bullish up swing in the cycle below. (Cycle tools are in readtheticker.com)
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Long term cycles, bullish for higher interest rates, inflation, commodities. Notice the 1940's period and how flat interest rates were, and what happened in the 1950's and after.
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The US debt percent of GDP now is much higher than 1940's, the chart below is only the Federal or Government debt, if you add on corporate and household, just double the yAxis percentage numbers. Currently the US interest expense is nearly equal to the US military budget.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote...
.."While I have made it a practice to limit my risk in most cases, I can trace most of my principal losses to my failure to place stop orders when the trades were made."..
Richard D Wyckoff
..“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.”..
Bernard Baruch
.."Money couldn't buy friends, but you got a better class of enemy"..
Spike Milligan
.."It's easier to fool people, than to convince them they have been fooled"..
Mark Twain
..."The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different' "...
John Templeton
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We at readtheticker.com hold the view that a mix of stock chart technical analysis, Richard Wyckoff, William Gann and Jim Hurst methods plus market fundamentals allows the investor to formulate a very sound market opinion. These attributes are mutually inclusive and must be weighted equally before investing or trading in any Stock, ETF, Currency, Bond, Commodity, CFD or Mutual Fund
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