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Created on: 3/5/2021 6:09:58 PM   Last Update: 3/5/2021 6:49:56 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 271 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.

1 POST Who is King? The Bond Market or the FED
who-is-king-the-bond-market-or-the-fedThe King Arthur story is battle between a false KING and the true KING. Generally the movie involves surprises, love and violence, and all this coming to the risk on markets very soon. 

The financial blog space expects the FED to do some sort of Yield Curve Control (YCC) to hold interest rates down while inflation moves higher, this is allowing inflation to run hot. The FED wishes to do this over time to deflate the debt away. Very similar to the 1940's post WW2, yields were pegged to 2% and risk on assets went sky high.

However Peter Boockvar suggest the FED may soon learn it is not in control and the true king of the markets is the BOND MARKET. Peter says simply the bond market is telling the FED to bite me!

The FED is not used to taking second fiddle to any challenger, and you can bet the FED will not give up the chair of market king easily, and they will try to smash the bond market into submission with forms YCC, TWIST and more QE.

Of course if the FED fails, all markets will be repriced to the new cost of money and you can bet the market violence will be spectacular.






The pressure of future inflation agrees with current bullish up swing in the cycle below. (Cycle tools are in readtheticker.com)


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BOND 1




Long term cycles, bullish for higher interest rates, inflation, commodities. Notice the 1940's period and how flat interest rates were, and what happened in the 1950's and after.


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BOND 2





The US debt percent of GDP now is much higher than 1940's, the chart below is only the Federal or Government debt, if you add on corporate and household, just double the yAxis percentage numbers. Currently the US interest expense is nearly equal to the US military budget.


debt






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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.


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Investing Quote...

..“The market always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance. All these things the market is continually impressing upon you, and you must get into the frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the action of the market itself — from the tape.”…

Richard D. Wyckoff


..“I buy on the assumption they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years” and “Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.”..

Warren Buffet


.."A government is the most dangerous threat to a man's rights: it holds a legal monopoly on the use of physical force against legally disarmed victims"..


Ayn Rand

..“The key to successful investing is having everyone agree with you — LATER.”..

Jim Grant

Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic stricken, you should not be in the stock market.

Warren Buffett




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