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Created on: 10/15/2011 7:22:00 PM   Last Update: 10/16/2011 2:04:00 AM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 3750 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.

1 POST Jim Bianco, truth sayer
jim-bianco-truth-sayerIt hard to find folks like Jim Bianco (of Bianco Research) who speak the truth. We spend too many hours on the internet to find plain speaking folk to make the calls the way it is. Here are Jim's points.

Source: http://bloom.bg/phjwUP#ooid=p5cjd3MjpbBerInCROXZ6vGnGyugL_Fa


1) VIX: Is at an indecision point (price at 32). Market is at upper end of range.


2) Retail Investor: Out of the market.


3) No Debt Growth: The US Consumer is loaded with debt, and cant take on any more and they are de leveraging, hence USA debt fueled economic growth model will sink frequently into recession. USA is now Japanese, and can expect a lost decade at the very least. Jim quote.."we are seeing the ugliness of not having debt growth re emerge and this is why we are talking about recession".."people just dont want to borrow, no matter how much we try they dont want to do it"...


4) Housing is not cheap: The housing affordability index is for the old world, and not the new world. The housing finance equation has changed to the detriment of buyers. Expect house prices to fall further.


5) Core CPI 2.0%: Expect this to move higher. Fed would not do QEs when CPI is this high. Bianco believes that the Fed will break its own rules to print more money.


6) US Banks: Losses and regulation make banks look like electric utilities. Thus there upside is limited.


COMMENTS:
(i) (3) Is the why (plus Europe issues) the US Dollar is getting a BID and why cycles forecast more strength for the US dollar. Of course US dollar up, everything else down.

(ii) Contrast this with (5), the reason for gold being so high. There is a bid under metals as long as Bernanke is at the fed.

(iii) Consider this, the US consumer currently fears debt. The US consumer is 70% of USA GDP and 20% of World GDP. No wonder Bill Gross of Pimco sees Developed World GDP at 0%.

(iv) Watch out for the fake break out rally. The vix is at teasing levels.

(v) The bullish stock market view has a very limited life span without government or fed funds juicing it up.



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Investing Quote...

..."By knowing the exact vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what point each will receive support and what point the greatest resistance is to be met"...

William D Gann


.."If you tell the truth, you don't have to remember anything."...


Mark Twain 

.."Just because you’re taught that something’s right and everyone believes it’s right, it don’t make it right."..


Mark Twain

.."Wait for that wisest of all counselors, Time"..


Pericles

.."October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February."..

Mark Twain




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