|
|
|
|
Created on: 3/7/2020 2:09:05 PM Last Update: 3/7/2020 10:02:54 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 1742 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
Dow 2020 Crash Watch
|
 This is now on the table. Let us review three prior Dow volatility shocks.
But first let us remind you of the Sabbatical Cycle (previous post Shemitah Study)
Re post of the 7 year cycle chart below. Take 2015 add on 7 equals 2022, which suggests if a bear market does a occur a low maybe found in 2022. In 2015 we had a 12% sell off just prior to the 2016 US elections.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Back to main topic ..
The most volatile years in the Dow over the last 100 years are: 1929, 1937, 1987
Currently the Vix is above 35, and if this continues to stay high then the crash risk remains.
Fundamentals: The virus effect in the USA is to get worse, and with risk assets priced to perfection a quick and violent adjustment is set to reset prices, or worse begin a deep trend to lower prices.
Here is a list of risk creating news items over the last two years:- Tariffs, trade War - c19 Virus supply chain attack - Central banks out of ammo (unless they change the rules: FED to buy stocks) - Russia/Saudi oil price war (to attack US Shale).
Bubbles waiting for the pin:
- World Wide corporate debt - World wide sovereign debt - World wide Housing market - US student loan debt
- US shale debt (part of corporate debt) - Market leading stocks priced to perfection (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Facebook) - Passive investing via ETFs (including, stock, debt and volatility ETFs) - High Frequency Trading (Algo's work on the way up and down) - Central bank balance sheets - Wall street financial engineering (CDOs, COCOs) - Zombie Banks (DB, HSBC)
Just to name a few.
Of course the need for cash will explode and contagion selling will occur. Please notice how GOLD is not acting like it did in the 2008 GFC crisis. Gold may escape contagion selling, and what does that tell you.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.
Support this work by buying us a hot drink by CLICKING HERE. If you would like make greater contribution, please make a donation by CLICKING HERE
NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote...
.."I believe that uncontrolled basic emotions are the true and deadly enemy of the speculator. That hope, fear, and greed is always present, these emotions sit on the edge of the psyche, waiting on the sidelines, waiting to jump into the action."..
Jesse Livermore
...“I swear by my life and my love of it that I will never live for the sake of another man, nor ask another man to live for mine.”...
Ayn Rand
..."There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force, socialism - by vote. It is merely the difference between murder and suicide"...
Ayn Rand
...“To me, the 'tape' is the final arbiter of any investment decision. I have a cardinal rule: Never fight the tape!”...
Martin Zweig
.."It's easier to fool people than convince them that they have been fooled"..
Mark Twain
|
|
|
|
We at readtheticker.com hold the view that a mix of stock chart technical analysis, Richard Wyckoff, William Gann and Jim Hurst methods plus market fundamentals allows the investor to formulate a very sound market opinion. These attributes are mutually inclusive and must be weighted equally before investing or trading in any Stock, ETF, Currency, Bond, Commodity, CFD or Mutual Fund
|
|
 | Pages |
| | 1. Blog Performance Review |
| | 2. List of the best blog posts |
| MostRecent |
|  | Bitcoin passes $100,000 |
| | Post TRUMP win, our top pick |
| | China M1 is key to watch. |
| | US Debt to GDP issue, what is next? |
|  | Market Money Sugar |
 | Ney(1) |
 | | US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles |
 | Crypto Currency(31) |
| Central Banks(18) |
| Crisis Watch(9) |
| Wyckoff(4) |
| Cycles(5) |
| Gann(13) |
| Chart Review(17) |
| Browsing(120) |
| RTT TV(15) |
| Sector Watch(30) |
| RTT Tools(43) |
| Wyckoff 2.0(42) |
| Mystery Trader(6) |
| | Elliot Wave within Wyckoff Logic |
| Market Strategy(73) |
| Cycle Review(75) |
| Swing Trade Idea(49) |
| Market Calls(23) |
| Investors(105) |
| | Hidden Pivot Point and Wyckoff logic |
| News(7) |
| Bonds(20) |
| Metals and Forex(165) |
| Gann Wyckoff Hurst(119) |
| | Newmont Mining Gann Angles |
| Wall Street(25) |
| Ticker Review(35) |
| Uncategorized(2) |
| | Bitcoin Chart Review |
| Market Review(96) |
| Jokes(28) |
 | Economic(99) |
| | China M1 is key to watch. |
| | US Debt to GDP issue, what is next? |
| | The uninformed are crushed by money supply growth |
| | US Election Year Cash Bazooka |
| | 2024 soft landing working it |
| | US GDP recovery |
| | US tax receipts hurting the dollar |
| | Stagflation now, as deflation risks grow |
| | Love of property investment will die |
| | Money supply crash will force a sharp FED reaction |
| | Powell has a debt problem |
| | Powell doing a Volker to crush inflation, yeah right! |
| | Bubble Watch - Maybe it only just started, Dow 50000 - Update 1 (RTT Plus) |
| | Bubble Watch - Maybe it only just started, Dow 50000 (RTT Plus) |
| | US is bound by these economic rules (RTT Plus) |
| | Dow Jones Utility index could trade like the FANGs |
| | Funds are getting ready to move out of USA |
| | US Economic Review 2019Q4 |
| | Bond Market, Houston we have a problem! |
| 202412(1) |
| | Bitcoin passes $100,000 |
| 202411(1) |
| | Post TRUMP win, our top pick |
| 202410(1) |
| | China M1 is key to watch. |
| 202409(1) |
| | US Debt to GDP issue, what is next? |
| 202408(1) |
| | Market Money Sugar |
| 202407(1) |
| | The uninformed are crushed by money supply growth |
| 202406(1) |
| | US Election Year Cash Bazooka |
| 202405(1) |
| | Bitcoin 2025 price targets |
| 202404(1) |
| | Fed panic signal to watch for |
| 202403(1) |
| | Gold stocks ready to move |
| 202402(1) |
| | Long term bond games will send investors into gold |
| 202401(2) |
| 202312(1) |
| | Stock market cycle look into 2024 |
| 202311(1) |
| | Ethereum runs hot on new market liquidity |
| 202310(2) |
| 202309(3) |
| 202308(3) |
| 202307(2) |
| 202306(3) |
| 202305(3) |
| 202304(4) |
| 202303(2) |
| 202302(4) |
| 202301(3) |
| 202212(4) |
| 202211(3) |
| 202210(5) |
| 202209(3) |
| 202208(4) |
| 202207(4) |
| 202206(3) |
| 202205(5) |
| 202204(3) |
| 202203(3) |
| 202202(2) |
| 202201(4) |
| 202112(5) |
| 202111(4) |
| 202110(3) |
| 202109(5) |
| 202108(5) |
| 202107(8) |
| 202106(9) |
| 202105(7) |
| 202104(4) |
| 202103(7) |
| 202102(6) |
| 202101(8) |
| 202012(3) |
| 202011(5) |
| 202010(3) |
| 202009(4) |
| 202008(4) |
| 202007(4) |
| 202006(3) |
| 202005(5) |
| 202004(4) |
| 202003(10) |
| 202002(5) |
| 202001(5) |
| 201912(5) |
| 201911(5) |
| 201910(7) |
| 201909(5) |
| 201908(4) |
| 201907(5) |
| 201906(5) |
| 201905(7) |
| 201904(5) |
| 201903(8) |
| 201902(5) |
| 201901(6) |
| 201812(4) |
| 201811(5) |
| 201810(7) |
| 201809(4) |
| | Gold Gann Update |
| | Bitcoin Update - Bullish pressure present |
| | Gold stocks, Elliot Wave and Volume |
| | RTT browsing latest.. |
 RSS
Atom
Email Delivery
Blog Links
Symbols used in blog
AAPL AMZN AORD AUY BB BTC COP DJI DOW DXY ETH EUR FB FXE FXY GDX GDXJ GLD GOOG HL HMY HUI INDU JJC LTC MCD NCM NEM NFLX OIL PALL QQQ RGLD SLV SPY SSRM TLT TNX TRAN TYX UTIL VIX XAU XLE XLU
|