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Created on: 3/7/2020 2:09:05 PM Last Update: 3/7/2020 10:02:54 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 1658 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
Dow 2020 Crash Watch
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 This is now on the table. Let us review three prior Dow volatility shocks.
But first let us remind you of the Sabbatical Cycle (previous post Shemitah Study)
Re post of the 7 year cycle chart below. Take 2015 add on 7 equals 2022, which suggests if a bear market does a occur a low maybe found in 2022. In 2015 we had a 12% sell off just prior to the 2016 US elections.
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Back to main topic ..
The most volatile years in the Dow over the last 100 years are: 1929, 1937, 1987
Currently the Vix is above 35, and if this continues to stay high then the crash risk remains.
Fundamentals: The virus effect in the USA is to get worse, and with risk assets priced to perfection a quick and violent adjustment is set to reset prices, or worse begin a deep trend to lower prices.
Here is a list of risk creating news items over the last two years:- Tariffs, trade War - c19 Virus supply chain attack - Central banks out of ammo (unless they change the rules: FED to buy stocks) - Russia/Saudi oil price war (to attack US Shale).
Bubbles waiting for the pin:
- World Wide corporate debt - World wide sovereign debt - World wide Housing market - US student loan debt
- US shale debt (part of corporate debt) - Market leading stocks priced to perfection (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Facebook) - Passive investing via ETFs (including, stock, debt and volatility ETFs) - High Frequency Trading (Algo's work on the way up and down) - Central bank balance sheets - Wall street financial engineering (CDOs, COCOs) - Zombie Banks (DB, HSBC)
Just to name a few.
Of course the need for cash will explode and contagion selling will occur. Please notice how GOLD is not acting like it did in the 2008 GFC crisis. Gold may escape contagion selling, and what does that tell you.
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NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote...
..."All a man needs to know to make money is to appraise conditions."...
Jesse Livermore
.."We are fast approaching the stage of the ultimate inversion: the stage where the government is free to do anything it pleases, while the citizens may act only by permission"..
Ayn Rand
.."To cause high prices, all the Fed will do will be to lower the re discount rate..., producing an expansion of credit and a rising stock market; then when, business men are adjusted to these conditions, it can check, prosperity in mid career by arbitrarily raising the rate of interest. It can cause the pendulum of a rising and falling market to swing gently back and forth by slight changes in the discount rate, or cause violent fluctuations by a greater rate variation and in either case it will possess inside information as to financial conditions and advance knowledge of the coming change, either up or down. This is the most dangerous advantage ever placed in the hands of a special privilege class by any Government that ever existed. The are private, conducted for the purpose of obtaining the greatest possible profits from the use of other people's money. They know in advance when to create panics to their advantage, and when to stop panic."...
Charles August Lindbergh Snr
.."If you tell the truth, you don't have to remember anything."...
Mark Twain
.."man exists for the achievement of his desires"..
Ayn Rand
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We at readtheticker.com hold the view that a mix of stock chart technical analysis, Richard Wyckoff, William Gann and Jim Hurst methods plus market fundamentals allows the investor to formulate a very sound market opinion. These attributes are mutually inclusive and must be weighted equally before investing or trading in any Stock, ETF, Currency, Bond, Commodity, CFD or Mutual Fund
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