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Created on: 3/7/2020 2:09:05 PM Last Update: 3/7/2020 10:02:54 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 2347 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
Dow 2020 Crash Watch
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 This is now on the table. Let us review three prior Dow volatility shocks.
But first let us remind you of the Sabbatical Cycle (previous post Shemitah Study)
Re post of the 7 year cycle chart below. Take 2015 add on 7 equals 2022, which suggests if a bear market does a occur a low maybe found in 2022. In 2015 we had a 12% sell off just prior to the 2016 US elections.
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Back to main topic ..
The most volatile years in the Dow over the last 100 years are: 1929, 1937, 1987
Currently the Vix is above 35, and if this continues to stay high then the crash risk remains.
Fundamentals: The virus effect in the USA is to get worse, and with risk assets priced to perfection a quick and violent adjustment is set to reset prices, or worse begin a deep trend to lower prices.
Here is a list of risk creating news items over the last two years:- Tariffs, trade War - c19 Virus supply chain attack - Central banks out of ammo (unless they change the rules: FED to buy stocks) - Russia/Saudi oil price war (to attack US Shale).
Bubbles waiting for the pin:
- World Wide corporate debt - World wide sovereign debt - World wide Housing market - US student loan debt
- US shale debt (part of corporate debt) - Market leading stocks priced to perfection (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Facebook) - Passive investing via ETFs (including, stock, debt and volatility ETFs) - High Frequency Trading (Algo's work on the way up and down) - Central bank balance sheets - Wall street financial engineering (CDOs, COCOs) - Zombie Banks (DB, HSBC)
Just to name a few.
Of course the need for cash will explode and contagion selling will occur. Please notice how GOLD is not acting like it did in the 2008 GFC crisis. Gold may escape contagion selling, and what does that tell you.
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NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote...
..."By knowing the exact vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what point each will receive support and what point the greatest resistance is to be met"...
William D Gann
.."Wait for that wisest of all counselors, Time"..
Pericles
.."It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong"..
George Soros
.."Capitalism works better than it sounds, while socialism sounds better than it works"...
Richard Nixon
Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic stricken, you should not be in the stock market.
Warren Buffett
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We at readtheticker.com hold the view that a mix of stock chart technical analysis, Richard Wyckoff, William Gann and Jim Hurst methods plus market fundamentals allows the investor to formulate a very sound market opinion. These attributes are mutually inclusive and must be weighted equally before investing or trading in any Stock, ETF, Currency, Bond, Commodity, CFD or Mutual Fund
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