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Created on: 3/7/2020 2:09:05 PM   Last Update: 3/7/2020 10:02:54 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 1497 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.

1 POST Dow 2020 Crash Watch
dow-2020-crash-watchThis is now on the table. Let us review three prior Dow volatility shocks.

But first let us remind you of the Sabbatical Cycle (previous post Shemitah Study

Re post of the 7 year cycle chart below. Take 2015 add on 7 equals 2022, which suggests if a bear market does a occur a low maybe found in 2022. In 2015 we had a 12% sell off just prior to the 2016 US elections. 


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Cycle




Back to main topic ..


The most volatile years in the Dow over the last 100 years are: 1929, 1937, 1987

Currently the Vix is above 35, and if this continues to stay high then the crash risk remains.

Fundamentals: The virus effect in the USA is to get worse, and with risk assets priced to perfection a quick and violent adjustment is set to reset prices, or worse begin a deep trend to lower prices.

Here is a list of risk creating news items over the last two years:

- Tariffs, trade War

- c19 Virus supply chain attack

- Central banks out of ammo (unless they change the rules: FED to buy stocks)

- Russia/Saudi oil price war (to attack US Shale).



Bubbles waiting for the pin: 

- World Wide corporate debt

- World wide sovereign debt

World wide Housing market

- US student loan debt

- US shale debt (part of corporate debt)

- Market leading stocks priced to perfection (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Facebook)

- Passive investing via ETFs (including, stock, debt and volatility ETFs)

- High Frequency Trading (Algo's work on the way up and down)

- Central bank balance sheets

- Wall street financial engineering (CDOs, COCOs)

- Zombie Banks (DB, HSBC)


Just to name a few.

Of course the need for cash will explode and contagion selling will occur. Please notice how GOLD is not acting like it did in the 2008 GFC crisis. Gold may escape contagion selling, and what does that tell you.



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2020




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1987




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1937




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1929




Divider




NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.

Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.


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Investing Quote...

.."Nothing new ever occurs in the business of speculating or investing in securities and commodities."..

Jesse Livernore Trading Rule


.."It's easier to fool people than convince them that they have been fooled"..


Mark Twain

Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic stricken, you should not be in the stock market.

Warren Buffett


.."Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception"..

George Soros


.."I never found beauty in the longing for the impossible and never found the possible to be beyond my reach"...


Ayn Rand




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