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Created on: 2/24/2020 3:21:32 PM   Last Update: 2/24/2020 5:18:28 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 695 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.

1 POST Oil cycle leads the stock cycle
oil-cycle-leads-the-stock-cycleSure correlation is not causation, but this chart should be known by you.

We all know the world economy was waiting for a pin to prick the 'everything bubble', but no one had any idea of what the pin would look like.

Hence this is why the story of the black swan is so relevant.






There is massive debt behind the record high stock markets, there so much debt the political will required to allow central banks to print trillions to cover losses will likely effect elections. The point is printing money to cover billions is unlikely to upset anyone, however printing trillions will. In 2007 it was billions, in 202X it will be trillions. Yeah, get that passed the community who wants a roads or hospitals versus bailing out investment banks for a second time in a few decades. 

The 2020 virus may not be the Spanish flue (lets hope so), however its effects on highlighting how weak the world supply chain is as well as the increased risk of a human deadly virus is more prevalent and more so how poorly the health services react to a crisis. This means there will be a 'structural change' on how things go forward. Supply chains will become more local, less centralized, consumer physical goods may require virus protection manufacturing process. This will all cost more, therefore higher prices and maybe even a inflation shock is in the future.

Inflation is the one thing which can rock the 'bubble' world. Why? Who can control the long end of the bond market, well no one. Remember when the US 10 year hit 3.2% (Nov 2018) and the world could not handle it, forcing the FED to stop QT and start QE (via repo market).      

A famous quote, highlighting the power of the bond market:


In the 1990s, the Democratic political adviser James Carville said: ...“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”...




Stock market cycle matching to oil (at a lag of 144 months). Energy is in everything.


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Oil forecasting stocks




More can be found on this subject, via RTT Plus post called - Virus - Speculation economic effects





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NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.

Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.


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Investing Quote...

..."Mathematics is the only exact science. All power under heaven and on earth is given to the man who masters the simple science of mathematics."...

William D Gann


Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic stricken, you should not be in the stock market.

Warren Buffett


.."Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn't mean politics won't take an interest in you"..


Pericles

.."A government is the most dangerous threat to a man's rights: it holds a legal monopoly on the use of physical force against legally disarmed victims"..


Ayn Rand

.."man exists for the achievement of his desires"..


Ayn Rand




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