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Created on: 1/1/2020 4:37:57 PM Last Update: 1/2/2020 2:12:30 PM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 476 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
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Currency and Metals could be the big movers early in 2020
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 Trump is doing his trade thing with China, and part of the 2020 agreement will be a resolution of the US dollar. A weaker US dollar is on the table, as it helps both Trump and Xi. The COT reports gives us a huge hint this is about to happen early in 2020.
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Lyn Alden makes a great point in this thread about the Dec 2019 repo news.
For years, large U.S. banks were drawing down cash levels (15% to 7% of assets in last 5yr) to buy treasuries (from 15% to 21% of assets). But now they are basically at regulatory limits; can't draw down cash to buy more treasuries. So, the Fed became the new buyer of them.
and ..
A lot of people think the Fed is trying to support the equity market, or covering for a bank/fund failure somewhere. Those explanations are possible, but not required. The Fed simply taking over as the primary financier of U.S. deficits is a mathematically sufficient reason.
Luke Gromen sums up the argument for a lower US dollar.
It is election year in the USA and to stimulate into Nov 2020 he needs a economic boost. Trump can not get tax cuts, or infrastructure spending out of congress, he is left with the FED balance sheet and a lower US dollar. They are about to step up big time.
More on CFTC reports, a pinch of salt is required. It is a review of current market conditions compared to previous conditions.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote...
..."They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market."..
Jesse Livermore
.."A radical is one who speaks the truth."..
Charles August Lindbergh Snr
..“It’s not what you own that will send you bust but what you owe.”..
Anon
.."Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it"..
Warren Buffett
.."The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing"..
Philip Fisher
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