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Created on: 6/22/2019 5:55:35 PM Last Update: Comment has not been edited. Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 2103 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
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Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally ends
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 When valuations for the boring water company or the boring electric company is trading like your Facebook, Apple, Amazon or Netflix or Google (ie FANG) you know something is wrong.
This is when a seriously over valued market is screaming at you.
Of course the reader must understand in a world where money printing goes super nuts (Zimbabwe style) the stock market may go hyper inflationary and picking a time frame for a top is never a good idea, but we are not there yet. There is no Ben Bernanke helicopter money to the masses yet (ie MMT).
To see when water company's (and such like) are nearing the crazy FANG like valuations a review of the Dow Jones Utility Index channel shows us how history can repeat. The chart below suggest the coming 2020 money boost from the central planners should keep stocks up until 2019/20. Must be an election year, hmmm!
Of course after the recent gold move the SP500 may end up 10% by Dec 2020, but in gold terms it may be flat or down, meaning gold moving higher and faster than the SP500. Of course SP500 moving higher while gold moves higher is good for gold stocks, on a relative strength basis.
The short story is: Happy stock market days should continue into 2020. But watch out for a massive top in the Dow Jones Utility Index as history is likely to repeat as a bear market arrives.
Subject to either of:
1) US/Iran war pushing oil going to $100 and a world recession follows very quickly.
2) Super nuts money printing, Zimbabwe style and Dow Jones to $50,000
3) Deutsche bank blows up Lehman style.
Dow Jones Utility Index History Rhymes.
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Cycle chart confirms channel forecast top.
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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote...
..."By knowing the exact vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what point each will receive support and what point the greatest resistance is to be met"...
William D Gann
..“Successful speculation requires staying on top of changes in industries and companies that either create new industries or improve on existing industries. The majority of your profits will come from these two … The shrewdest traders throughout history all adapted the skill of reactionary change, as the market constantly presents new and different opportunities.”..
Bernard Baruch
.."It's easier to fool people than convince them that they have been fooled"..
Mark Twain
.."Money can't buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery"..
Spike Milligan
..“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”..
Benjamin Franklin
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