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Created on: 5/20/2011 3:42:00 AM Last Update: 5/20/2011 4:43:31 AM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 5139 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
1 POST
Hurst Cycles confirm Felix Zuluaf bearish outlook - UPDATE
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 This time Flex Zuluaf does not hold back, Europe falling into recession as Germany exports fail, mainly due to the PIGS of Europe demand collapse. If you ever wanted a US dollar bullish story, look no further.
Video from the FT.com Long View report 20110519: Flex Zuluaf Storm Clouds over markets
Note: I dont know how to embed videos from FT.com
Summary
-Markets will be rocky for the next few months.
-Emerging Economies are slowing, fighting inflation.
-Euro looking dangerous on the road to a double dip.
-Germany exports a huge amount to the PIGS, twice as much as they export to China.
-The PIGS are heading for a recession.
-China is tightening, to force a slowdown in construction and force inflation rates down due to social issues. (RTT added : China construction sector is the China economy)
-We are seeing a global economic slowdown that is changing global fundamentals
If scenario is correct, best positions would be in a risk off trade:
- Long US Dollar
- Short copper and other base metals
- Short commodities
- Short commodity currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD)
- Defensive stock sectors (if you have to be in stocks)
- Long term US Bonds are awful
- Short term will be a ride to safety
COMMENTS: I say WOW, cycles are rolling over for a reason then! If Zuluaf scenario comes to light then soon the SP500 will start to price this in. At the moment monies are flowing into SPDR Utilities, Health care and Consumer Staples like they are the latest Ipad. You also can expect silver to get punished, gold will suffer but not as much as silver. Flex is a business cycle guru so pay attention, the timing of this will show up via 'Hurst Cycles' and 'Wyckoffian logic'. Watch this space.
NOTE: The last several blog posts have been very bearish, it is what it is. Bulls have had a good run!
See posts
Hurst Cycles confirm Felix Zuluaf bearish outlook
Cycles say the bears are about to roar
This is the contrarian investors next big winner
NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote...
..."The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare the rod while teaching."...
Jesse Livermore
..“If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.”..
Bernard Baruch
.."When a company goes from crappy to less crappy, the stock goes up. When it goes from less crappy to good, the stock goes up more. When businesses become terrific, get out"..
Peter Lynch
.."Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway"..
Warren Buffett
.."October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February."..
Mark Twain
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