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Created on: 5/15/2011 7:00:45 PM Last Update: 5/15/2011 7:30:35 PM Posted by: RTT WARNING: This entry is 5027 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
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Hurst Cycles confirm Felix Zuluaf bearish outlook
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Felix Zulauf spends his time monitoring cycles of all forms. He has a great track record, so when he speaks you had better listen.This his latest.
This is consistent with our cycles: Cycles say the bears are about to roar
Barron's Roundtable member Felix Zulauf spoke to the German-language Handelsblatt about the European sovereign debt crisis and financial markets in an article published today. Like Jeremy Grantham, he has turned bearish. Below is the translation by google translate, translation is not word, for word, best we could do, you read the following at your own risk, of course you can do your own translation from the link provided.
Source: „Als nächstes ist Italien dran“ (Next, Italys Turn)
The euro will fall apart. That the latest expection form the stock market Guru Felix Zulauf.
You were always a big critic of the euro. How goes the crisis?
FZ: Never have debt problems solved by more debt. In Greece, will play an epic drama. The Greeks are broke, its people and the Portuguese are close. Who's next?
FZ: Spain is still doing well, but the matter will proceed as in Ireland. The Spainish bonds are priced correctly. The ECB manipulates the rates.
Is that all for the crisis countries?
FZ: No, it is missing Italy. Deposits are falling in their banks. We are experiencing a bank run in slow motion. Banks in Italy and in Spain are being refinanced with more short-term funds. Once the ECB stops being the biggest buyer of government bonds the yields will have to rise. It go crazy in Italy this year. Can the Euro take it?
FZ: No. The markets want a breakup of the euro, with a value loss of 40 to 50 percent in the peripheral countries. The politicians want to save the euro. This is only possible with a weak currency and high inflation.
And the other currencies?
FZ: None is healthy. The dollar is weak. Only the Americans believe that they can live with 10 percent public deficit every year and can expand the Fed's balance sheet forever.
How does the Fed deal with the crisis?
FZ: The purchase of government bonds was nonsense. We live in an era of central banks as massive market manipulators. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke wants higher stock prices, in the past they would had sent a Fed chairman to the long lost outback for such a goal. And the consequences?
FZ: My scenario for the coming years, even for Germany: tax increases, reduction of performance guarantees, thus decreasing purchasing power. Profits will have only the wealthy few, the stocks, real estate and commodities. What's on shorter term in the stock market?
FZ: From spring to fall (ie USA Summer,'SELL IN MAY'), I expect a major correction in commodities and stocks. This has now begun. The markets are overheated and the emerging economies are currently raising interest rates. Investors have so far been very quiet ... FZ: Because they have made large profits in the last two years, defensive is now the best option. First to fall will be raw materials, then the stocks. In the summer, analysts will begin to lower their profit expectations. Then stocks will drop, perhaps 20 percent. And what is then will the Federal Reserve do? It wll starts its next government bond purchases, their QE3.
END

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