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Created on: 8/20/2014 5:21:50 AM Last Update: 8/20/2014 5:23:23 AM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 4373 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.
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Richard Wyckoff SP500 price forecast
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 Richard Wyckoff used Point and Figure charts to target price zones where the energy or 'effect' from a 'cause' or consolidation would run out. Time to see what it says about the current SP500 price advance.
Reference: The Wyckoff Method Applied in 2009: A Case Study of the US Stock Market
Within the pdf linked above, page down to page 34 or page 6, figure 8. There you see the forecast price zone of the SP500 from the top in 2007 to a bottom in 2009. The forecast is of price only, and not time. It was very accurate.
Richard Wyckoff would only use this technique on PnF charts that were Wyckoff friendly, or more simply charts that showed the PnF price zone target worked with some success. After all, not all PnF charts are the same. The chart below shows the PnF forecast (A) and (B) worked out well [NOTE: (A) is the same one in the pdf linked].
The Wyckoff forecasting idea is that you count the columns that are included within the CAUSE ([re]accumulation or [re]distribution) and the extend the price zone vertically based on a x3 multiple. The column count would start at the first (PD) point of demand and the last point of supply (LPS) during a bullish accumulation consolidation.
The calculation at (C) suggest a price zone target of 2034 for the SP500. This is based on a 'cause' column count of 16. However some may think the column count should be 18, if so the target price zone would be 2190. Let's settle for a price range between 2000 and 2090 (90pts). More frankly, the SP500 is near the target now give or take 5%.
This Wyckoff PnF price zone tagret is not top picking, it is however a target where that the EFFECT from the CAUSE is about to run out, and it is where market watches can expect the market to consolidate. The folks on would say 'expect volatility'! Remember a consolidation may mean reversal or continuation.
This method is tried and true, it has been around for a very long time, and on charts that show a good acceptance of its use, it will continue to work, and the SP500 us one of these.
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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote...
..."By knowing the exact vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what point each will receive support and what point the greatest resistance is to be met"...
William D Gann
.."Wait for that wisest of all counselors, Time"..
Pericles
.."It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong"..
George Soros
.."Capitalism works better than it sounds, while socialism sounds better than it works"...
Richard Nixon
Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic stricken, you should not be in the stock market.
Warren Buffett
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We at readtheticker.com hold the view that a mix of stock chart technical analysis, Richard Wyckoff, William Gann and Jim Hurst methods plus market fundamentals allows the investor to formulate a very sound market opinion. These attributes are mutually inclusive and must be weighted equally before investing or trading in any Stock, ETF, Currency, Bond, Commodity, CFD or Mutual Fund
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