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Created on: 8/19/2013 2:27:07 AM   Last Update: 8/19/2013 2:34:08 AM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 3388 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.

1 POST China and Copper remain bearish
china-and-copper-remain-bearishChina and Japan account for 18% of world GDP (if you believe the numbers) and all is not well. As stated before the economic term GDP is just a politically made up statistic by US President Roosevelt to tell the masses that things were improving during the great depression, when they were not. The true measure is income and net savings growth.

Back on topic.

Both China and Japan have increasing economic issues:

Japan
- QE of 25% of GDP is not resulting in economic growth.
- QE has increased the cost of living (energy cost) thus incomes under pressure.
- Domestic and international demand for Japanese goods has fallen and industrial production sank recently

China
- Shadow banking stress of $10 trillion is a major concern (Bert Dohmen comments)
- Funding for non state own business has dried up
- American companies exposed to China are suffering. Apple, Yum Brands, Anglo American, MacDonalds.

Copper (JJC) has a high correlation to China ETF FXI, China copper demand is about 30% of the worlds copper market. The chart below shows the price and volume wave situation, and at the moment rallies in JJC and FXI should be sold.

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Copper



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Investing Quote...

.."Mathematical science, which is the only real science that the entire civilized world has agreed upon, furnishes unmistakable proof of history repeating itself and shows that the cycle theory, or harmonic analysis, is the only thing that we can rely upon to ascertain the future."..

William D Gann


..."The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different' "...

John Templeton


.."To cause high prices, all the Fed will do will be to lower the re discount rate..., producing an expansion of credit and a rising stock market; then when, business men are adjusted to these conditions, it can check, prosperity in mid career by arbitrarily raising the rate of interest. It can cause the pendulum of a rising and falling market to swing gently back and forth by slight changes in the discount rate, or cause violent fluctuations by a greater rate variation and in either case it will possess inside information as to financial conditions and advance knowledge of the coming change, either up or down. This is the most dangerous advantage ever placed in the hands of a special privilege class by any Government that ever existed. The are private, conducted for the purpose of obtaining the greatest possible profits from the use of other people's money. They know in advance when to create panics to their advantage, and when to stop panic."...

Charles August Lindbergh Snr

..The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell"..

John Templeton


In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.

Benjamin Graham




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