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1. Jesse Livermores Secret To Success

2. The great crash 1929

3. Dear NewBie Investor

4. How to win in the stock market

5. Commandments to follow

6. 10 Rules for Investing

7. How to survive a stock market crash

8. William J ONeil, CANSLIM

9. Dan Zanger, Wyckoff mark up trader

10. Barry Ritholtz keep it simple stupid

11. Gerald Loeb how to win

12. Paul Tudor Jones II

13. Felix Zulauf

14. Warren Buffett

15. Chuck Hughes 7 times World Trader Champion

16. Super Trader Karen

17. Reading the tape

18. Indicators Introduction

19. Richard Wyckoff method

20. Bob Evans, renowned Wyckoff teacher

21. William Gann method

22. William Gann life story

23. William Gann Law of Vibration

24. Jim Hurst method

25. Wyckoff method improved1

26. Wyckoff method improved2

27. Original Wyckoff and Wyckoff 2.0

28. Wyckoff 2.0 vs Others

29. Wyckoff 2.0 and Volume Spread Analysis

30. Powerful Patterns

31. Elliot Waves

32. Price Action

33. Market Statistics

34. Cycles for short term speculation

35. Stop Loss methods

36. Alpha Stock Scanner

37. Swing Scanner

38. Flash Charts

39. RTT Market Timer

40. RTT Wyckoff Short Term model

41. Chart Drawing Tools

42. Standard Indicators

43. Proprietary Indicators (PI)

44. PI: RTT TrendStatus

45. PI: RTT TrendPower

46. PI: RTT VolumeWave

47. PI: RTT PriceVolume

48. PI: RTT Rainbow Bands

49. PI: RTT Volume

50. PI: RTT MarketPulse

51. PI: RTT Wyckoff Strength Weakness

52. PI: Proprietary Indicators Caution

53. What we do?



         

Indicator Library
Jim Hurst method
The originator of this method is from the writings of Jim Hurst.


James Hurst Jim Hurst

James (Jim) M Hurst is a legend to knowledgeable individuals interested and involved in the study of cyclical price movement in the financial markets.

By training and background an aerospace engineer, he was the first true pioneer in the computerized research into the nature of stock price action, devoting many years and over 20,000 computer hours to this study. His conclusions were first documented in his groundbreaking classic, The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing.
 
The work of Hurst inspired cycles analysts who came later, and represents the most important factor behind the work later done by such cycles luminaries as peter Eliades, Jim Tillman, Walter Bressert, and Brian Millard.


First, let's review some basic cycle terminology.
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Hurst Cycle Terminology

Jim Hurst published his methods in the book called 'The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing' (see our education page). Hurst determined that a price series may have dominated cycles that can be used to time stock transactions for profit. You can also learn more via our  videos.

How would Hurst Trade:
In short he would:
1) Find the dominant cycle or cycles: One can use the basic eyeball method or as we prefer the readtheticker.com 'RTT Cycle Finder Spectrum' tool to determine dominating cycles within a price series.
2) Find the sub cycle by dividing the dominant cycle in half. (Example: A dominant cycle of 80 would have a sub cycle of 40). Of course, you can use other lower period cycles that have a good Bartels value.
3) Time your stock transaction with turns of (2) within the trend of (1). See more on the subject under the post titled PI:Price to continue or reverse?
Note: We use the RTTHurstDPO or the RTTHurstROC to time price action to the dominant cycle.

To use the full set of Hurst tools you require a membership to RTTIndicators. Standard indicators have limited Hurst Cycle functionality.

Please review the 80 period cycle within the SPY ETF (image below). The dominance did not really start until mid 2008, then it has led the way of nearly all major market turns. You will need to search far and wide to find a better leading (not lagging) stock timing indicator than the Hurst cycle. However, like anything a cycle dominance can fade, dominance can shift, therefore one has to be diligent and monitor a price series closely. The chart below is an example why Hurst was successful. Price and their underlying cycles can be predictable and therefore stock transaction timing is very possible and can be very profitable.

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Hurst Cycle SPY
The Hurst cycle we use is a sine wave filtered by price, the higher the correlation of price to the sine wave the less the sine wave is altered. Thus allowing one to view good and poor periods of price cycle behavior.
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Hurst Cycle Understanding

If you find multiple significant cycles, you can plot them together and then combine them to see the master cycle.

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Hurst multicycles SPY

Or it might be best to study multiple cycles individually.
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SPY Cycles Multi Single

Cycles do exist in the market or any time series. Just check out these cycles lows found on the Dow Jones.
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INDU Dow Jones Cycles


Once we determine the dominant cycle, a scientific method is required to measure the performance of price relationship to the cycle. Future price action is always an 'unknown', but we can say that future price action will take one of three forms:
(i) Conform to the cycle.*
(ii) Temporarily trend in an inverse manner to the cycle. *
(iii) Break the cycle, as to render cycle influence as random.

*These periods are excellent opportunities to profit.

The following chart highlights the two tools we use to measure price action with the dominant cycle, the RTTHurstDPO and the displaced moving average. Hurst expected price to conform to the cycle by the completion of the half cycle, but Hurst understood that price in trends can temporarily inverse to cycle, this is accepted as long as price reaffirms its relationship to the cycle by the next swing.

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Cycle to price performance RTTHurstDPO

When price action fails to obey the cycle this is called an inversion. How to judge possible inversions is a technical art that the Hurst analyst must master.

Methods available are:
1) Apply a displaced simple moving average to the price, displacement being half of the cycle period. If price fails to break the average then the price is likely to inverse to the cycle.
2) Apply the RTT HurstDPO. If the DPO price breaks the cycle swing, then the price is likely to inverse to the cycle.
3) Apply the RTT TrendPower tool, to determine if the strength or weakness of the trend concurs with expected cycle outcome (note: if the cycle period is 80, then use 40 within the RTT TrendPower indicator).
4) Apply methods from the Wyckoff and Gann tool chest. Gann Angles, Wyckoff market phases and volume patterns will increase your odds of correctly determining a price inversion to the cycle.

Example: Gann Angles help with the determination of price inversion to the dominant cycle.

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Price inversion to dominant cycle


Readtheticker.com Cycle Finder Spectrum
We have incorporated the latest advanced mathematics to find within a price series sample:
1) Cycles with significant amplitudes
2) Rank cycles with their 'Bartels Significance Value'.
3) Determine win loss percentage of cycle profitability to price.

The 'RTT Cycle Finder Spectrum' is a pop out tool within the members area. It is designed to scan for cycles while you are building an analysis or cycle chart. There is no charting functionality within this tool.

The Bartels Significance Value
Developed by Julius Bartels, a geophysicist who worked at the Carnegie Foundation in Washington in the 1930's. The advanced maths measures the stability of the amplitude and phase of each cycle. The method provides a direct measure of the likelihood that a given cycle is genuine and not random. The closer the cycle Bartels value is to zero, the less likelihood the cycle has been influenced by random events, and therefore significant to the data series.

To conclude: The lower the 'Bartels value' the more significant the cycle to the price series sample used.

We color code the report table for easier use, as follows.
Red < 2.5
Blue < 7.0
Green < 12.0

Any reading over 7.0 requires an eyeball determination as to the cycles significance. For readings over 12 the cycle is unlikely to be significant, and more likely to be random. Cycle readings below 2.5 are considered to be significant. The 'Bartels value' does change over time for each cycle period, therefore regular monitoring of the price series to cycle dominance is required.

Examining the profit win loss percentage of cycles is another tool to use to determine the dominant cycle. This is very useful when you have a cluster of low Barbels cycle scores.

Recently we found a dominant cycle within the SP500 index, that had a Bartels score of 2.0245, a win/loss count percentage of 80%, a win/loss SP500 points of 85%. Knowing this cycle I made very sure we did not invest against it. Whereas the general market participants had no idea of this dominant cycle and most likely suffered a loss. Further, it is great to have an indicator that is 80% accurate, it is even better when you add our proprietary RTTTrendStatus and RTTHurstDPO tool to make the percentage chance of success even higher.

Another point to note is that a Bartels scan is cumulative over the data sample selected, that is it examines all data over the cycle period selected. This is not like stock scans for RSI levels or MACD levels which are at a point in time.

Example output from the readtheticker.com 'RTT Cycle Finder Spectrum'.

Specification are:
Symbol: SPY
Run to last date (optional): 04/01/2010
Manual cycle period selected (optional): 78
Max cycle periods to scan up to: 150
Daily data sample size used: 750 days
Max daily data sample available: 4325 days.

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Cycle Finder Spectrum

See why Bartels Significance Values do matter.
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Bartels scores do matter

This is the methodology used to determine win loss percentage of cycles related to price time series.
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Hurst Cycle win loss ratio

We also take a portfolio approach with Hurst logic. For example, we scanned the NASD100 index to find the dominant cycle. This turned out to be cycle period 78. Then we wanted to find stocks within the NASD100 that are most sensitive to cycle period 78 for our portfolio. The results follow.

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NASDAQ Bartels scan


The above Hurst cycles are adaptive cycles to price action. Readtheticker.com can also draw standard swine wave cycles (these cycles do not change with price action) for those folks who follow Wall (20 week) and Kitchin (60 or 180 week) cycles, and the cycles can be combined for cycle trend studies.

Example

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Sine Wave


Here is an example of standard (fixed) sine waves and adaptive sine waves confirming price action.

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Sinewave Fixed and Adaptive


If you are a fan of the Wall and Kitchin cycles, then the follow chart is an example of them:

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Wall Cycle




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote...

.."I latter told my students, 'think in waves' [of price and volume]"..

Richard D Wyckoff


..“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria.”..

John Templeton




Created on: 8/25/2010 4:46:29 AM GMT   Last Update: 8/4/2013 2:16:11 AM GMT Posted by: RTT
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We at readtheticker.com hold the view that a mix of stock chart technical analysis, Richard Wyckoff, William Gann and Jim Hurst methods plus market fundamentals allows the investor to formulate a very sound market opinion. These attributes are mutually inclusive and must be weighted equally before investing or trading in any Stock, ETF, Currency, Bond, Commodity, CFD or Mutual Fund



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