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Created on: 5/11/2011 3:28:16 AM   Last Update: 5/11/2011 3:39:53 AM Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 2083 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.

1 POST Cycles say the bears are about to roar (682)


cycles-say-the-bears-are-about-to-roarThe Stock market pushes higher and higher, what fool would take a short position against this mighty liquidity pump up, however there are a few dark clouds in the next few months: US Summer is seasonly poor, QE2 ending, earnings are peaking, Greek woes. When the SP500 sinks, historically the US dollar rallies, transports fall and funds rotate out of aggressive stocks to defensive stocks. Let's review these cycles to see what we can expected next.

Dow Transports: If Transports fall, this can lead to a Dow Theory Sell signal.
Defensive Stocks: If folks are bearish, they begin to rotate monies into defensive stocks.
US Dollar: If the risk off trade is the theme, then the commodity currencies and the Euro will fall, the offset will be a rally in the US Dollar. A rising US dollar will wipe millions off the sales revenue of SP500 companies, thus earnings will be lower.

Between 2009/10, many cycles suffered an inversion to price, this was due to very bearish sentiment reversing on massive quantitative easing (QE1) from central banks around the world.

The cycles show all are due for a rollover, it is going to be very interesting in the next three months. No wonder sector rotation into defensive stocks is the current theme in the SP500.

QUESTION: Are the bears about to roar ?

If you concur, SPY puts and bearish ETFs should be on your menu near the end of May 2011.


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US Dollar

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Dow Transports

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Defensive Stocks index


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Investing Quote...

..“What beat me was not having the brains enough to stick to my own game – that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play.”..

Jesse Livermore


.."October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February."..

Mark Twain


..“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria.”..

John Templeton


.."Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets"...

Stan Druckenmiller


..“One must search through a maze of complex and contradictory details to get to the significant facts … Then he must be able to operate coldly, clearly, and skilfully on the basis of those facts.” The challenge for the successful speculator is “how to disentangle the cold hard facts from the rather warm feelings of the people dealing with the facts.” Moreover, “if you get all the facts, your judgment can be right; if you don’t get all the facts, it can’t be right”...

Bernard Baruch




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