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Created on: 3/12/2011 9:05:55 PM GMT   Last Update: 3/13/2011 12:13:41 AM GMT Posted by: RTT
WARNING: This entry is 1321 days old. It may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content. Please read on with caution.

1 POST Japanese stock market forecast post 2011 earth quake (238)


japanese-stock-market-forecast-post-2011-earth-quakeThe Japanese people are suffering after a massive earthquake, our best wishes go out to them. Many financial market analyst are posting what happened to Japanese stocks (N225) post the 1995 Kobe earthquake. What can we expect this time, we fear much of the same.

Ref: Japan's Stock Market Post Kobe Earthquake in 1995

Bespoke N225 Chart


After a quick scan (via our Cycle Finder Spectrum) of the Hurst cycles and we found that N225 has two very dominant daily cycles. The 193 and 302. We merged these two together for a combined cycle and we found that when both the 193 and 302 cycle peaked (red vertical line) at the same time the market did not perform well after wards. Currently we have a combined peak in 2011 that does not bode well even before the current earthquake.  The large red down arrow highlights when a significant sell off followed the merged cycle peaks.

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N225

The correlation of market sell offs between the N225 and the HSI is not significant. But we suggest that this is a question of degree. When the world event effected both the N225 and the HSI both did sell off in tune. The HSI has been called the 'canary in the coal mine' for world stock market trends as the index includes a large list of Chinese stocks. A sell off in the HSI will attract selling in the SP500 as the US is now linked by the wallet to China.

Add the explosion in the nuclear power plant to the earthquake and Tsunami and this will result in over 100 billion dollars of economic loss. This may be short term, we hope so. We also hope that the nuclear power plant explosion does not develope into any long term economic suffering. Any fear of 'three mile island' or 'Chernobyl' in the world third largest and most populated economy would send fear through out the world stock markets, you can bet on that !

Support and pray for our Japanese friends!



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Investing Quote...

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..“I buy on the assumption they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years” and “Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.”..

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